[tlb]

The airline industry is unprofitable mainly because the pilots capture most of the money. Their union gives them nearly unlimited pricing power.

It's possibly that self-driving cars won't be profitable, but it certainly won't be for the same reason.

There's reason to believe it'll be a winner-take-all market, because more data leads to lower crash rate which (in a world of rational consumers) will make them more popular, in a self-reinforcing cycle.

[brians]

If that were true, we’d expect the nonunion carriers to do fantastically. But Frank Lorenzo has broken N unions and driven N airlines under. We’d expect the regional carriers, which often pay under $40k to pilots, to do great—but they fail more often than the big carriers paying $100 to $150k.

But your last point is interesting. AlphaGo Zero suggests that for many situations, the return to more data levels off very quickly—after all, humans all learn to drive reasonably well with a certain amount of training. The early phases may have this self-reinforcing bit, and there may be an early dominant player, but we should expect that twenty years in anybody will be able to make a self-driving car that is as safe as modern air travel.

[arcticfox]

Once we hit a minimum threshold of safety, don't you think other factors will become more important? Since when do consumers make choices solely based on safety? We would only see one type of car on the road if that was the case, whoever was winning the crash and avoidance tests that year.

[nradov]

This shouldn't be down voted, you are correct about the airline part. For details see the excellent explanation by Philip Greenspun, an engineer who switched careers to become an airline pilot.

http://philip.greenspun.com/flying/unions-and-airlines

[alasdair_]

>The airline industry is unprofitable mainly because the pilots capture most of the money. Their union gives them nearly unlimited pricing power.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the average salary of a Commercial Pilot is $73,490 per year.

This seems low given the sheer number of hours of training involved.

[nradov]

The average is meaningless. New regional airline co-pilots barely earn enough to eat. Senior captains for major airlines are paid very, very well.

[Pyxl101]

Why would that be? Is there a difference in competence significant enough to warrant such a difference in pay?

[Robotbeat]

Consider that senior pilots are flying the biggest, most expensive planes with the most passengers and the most revenue. Even slight improvements in competency or safety look pretty good when you're talking about a 747 which costs the airline $400 million.

[nradov]

Competency and safety are relatively minor factors. The real reason is that senior pilots control the unions and airlines have to stop operating if pilots strike.

[prakster]

Solution: Self driving planes.

[rspeer]

Not to mention that they're frequently away from home.