[sillysaurus3]

Uh huh, and all of my "Buy in at $3,900; buy in at $5,800" comments were downvoted too.

It's remarkable how influential groupthink is. Everyone is panic selling, so of course the logical action is to buy. It's never a good time to buy when everyone's been buying! This is the only correct time to do a long-term bet.

This is all quite mistaken for day trading, but that's not this strategy.

[EliRivers]

Everyone is panic selling, so of course the logical action is to buy.

A great many companies watch their stock crash... and then become worthless and cease trading. Buying those crashes was not a good move.

This is the only correct time to do a long-term bet.

A great many companies that didn't experience a crash in their stock nonetheless were great long-term bets, and some investors made their fortunes this way.

[sillysaurus3]

It didn't even take 10 hours for me to be proven right. BTC has jumped over $14,000 again. We'll see if it will continue, but it most likely will.

[EliRivers]

http://m.nautil.us/issue/55/trust/the-resulting-fallacy-is-r...

[CodingGuy]

This is only a good strategy, when you think this pump and dump will continue forever - I doubt it!

[sillysaurus3]

BTC will be around literally forever, and speculation is one of the only reasons to adopt it.

Those two reasons are enough to play the odds, for whoever's paying attention.

[shawabawa3]

Actually a "death spiral" is basically built-in to bitcoin.

If the value stays at this level for a while and the hashpower increases so that miners rely on this level of income, a drop of say 30% could mean that almost all miners are running in the red (except those with free electricity). The resulting long block times could cause the price to crash more, discouraging even more miners, until a block is just never produced again. The difficulty adjustment requires 2016 blocks to be mined.

It will inevitably be forked to try and save it, but that might not take off...

[gremlinsinc]

BTC will die eventually--albeit slowly. $26 transaction fees are insane and unsustainable imho. My money is on proof of stake like Ardor.

I'd like to see something with GBI built in, and maybe less deflationary. Not completely, as it's nice when saving money makes it worth more, but the only reason to have btc now is to hodl and make more ... till it's worth shit... and you can't sell it at all.

I mean really you can't even really use it for utility any more... Say I wanted to buy hosting with bitcoin... I pay $15 a month for hosting, so that's 15 in btc, PLUS $26 to send the btc? well fuck that.. nvm.. guess I'll just hodl like everyone else...

[leadingthenet]

I think you’re right.

But what is your responde to the fact that Bitcoin is just not that useful anymore? What exactly is this outrageous value based on?

[pjc50]

It wasn't very useful to start with and that took it to $20,000.

[sillysaurus3]

1. BTC is useful as a store of wealth. A rich saudi would be very happy to dump their fortune into BTC and then wait several years. It would be much safer than storing it in banks where they are held hostage in hotels until they agree to pay N% of their fortune to be released. (Apparently this actually happens.)

2. BTC is a speculator's currency. The whole point is to speculate, and not much more than that. But that's literally the point, and the fact that it's absurd doesn't change how real it is.

3. Fluctuations will be with BTC forever due to #2. This has always been true and will continue to be true. Periods of inactivity will become longer, but then eventually speculators will notice it's a lucrative deal again.

4. Speculators have a crucial ability: they can manipulate the market. It's common for people to dump N million into the market to cause a small rally, at which point everyone else starts buying. This happened to Ripple. No one cared about Ripple until however many months ago that was, when it suddenly surged overnight due to this.

5. BTC has immense inertia because it was the first, and continues to be the most valuable. As long as the core team doesn't screw with it at all – including trying to "extend" it with bigger block sizes or any other convenience features – then BTC should stay a fine store of wealth. Satoshi planned for the long term.

6, The above points do not hold for other currencies. Others have some of these points, but not all of them. Hence BTC remains a solid bet.

7. All of this can be mistaken, but after seeing this behavior many, many times, at this point it's fine to gamble that you won't be wrong this time.

8. Don't put in more money than you're willing to lose.

[joejev]

> 1. BTC is useful as a store of wealth.

> 8. Don't put in more money than you're willing to lose.

Cryptocurrency-think

[sillysaurus3]

$15k now.

[votepaunchy]

You can be held hostage for your digital wallet just the same as for your bank deposits.