[Kiro]

There are so many other spectacular things with this bubble, down to the nature of the actual instrument itself. Cryptography, decentralisation, miners, forks, etc. The IT bubble was still a stock bubble. I think this is something new.

[sulam]

If you were an adult during the first one, we might be able to have a real conversation about this. If not, probably not so much.

This bubble is relatively small in comparison -- so far. The number of companies, the amount of the real economy affected, the sheer pervasiveness in daily life, etc. AOL single handedly carpeted North America with CDs. Internet technology revolutionized so many things it's hard to pick the most important, in the space of about 5 years. The one that still stands out to me personally is how it totally crushed international long distance calling. Hell, it completely revolutionized the _porn_ industry. Bitcoin is no comparison (again, so far).

[sulam]

Adding some more thought to this — if anything I think Bitcoin is running too hot. Crypto-currency in general has the potential to be a big deal. Ethereum especially. BTC as a mechanism of exchange is probably dead right now. It could recover, but it will require a lot for it to become more than a speculator’s wet dream. Ethereum, on the other hand, is a hacker’s wet dream. But it seems to have more long-term potential from my perspective...

In general, as compared to the Internet bubble, this year might be Bitcoin’s 1995 (the year Netscape went public and suddenly the Internet went from being something you read about in a magazine to something that could make you rich). The next 5 years were pretty crazy, and Bitcoin has a long way to go to equal it. But maybe it will get there. The only thing is, I think this might be 1995 and 2001 all rolled up together, and I don’t think that will be good for Bitcoin specifically, and maybe crypto currency in general.

[Kiro]

> If you were an adult during the first one

That was uncalled for. I was very much an adult during the first one.

You are talking about the internet revolution in general and a comparison to blockchains could possibly be relevant but not in this discussion. You didn't trade the internet in the Dot-com bubble, you traded stocks. Bitcoin is different because that's the actual instrument being traded.

[sulam]

I understand the point you’re making about Bitcoin being mechanically different from “Internet”. However the average consumer was investing in “Internet companies” in the same way people today talk about investing in Bitcoin. There was very little deeper knowledge about the complexities of what they were putting their money into. The motivation then and now was simply greed and “wow this is big!”

My grandfather, who sold cars for a living, called me up out of the blue to ask me what he should invest in after Netscape went public. I was 24 and we’d never talked about the stock market in my life. I had no business experience (I was about to get a lot, it turns out, but had none then) and while I was doing a ton of Internet-related work, it wasn’t making anyone money. Yet suddenly I was an Oracle to a man in his 60’s who really should have been putting his money into the bond market if anything. Instead he invested it in Spyglass, on my half-hearted “well this is a company like Netscape I guess”, and then proceeded to tell me all about how it was doing for the next 5 years. If he were still alive today, I could imagine the same thing happening with respect to Bitcoin (except this time I would tell him I have no idea, and to put his money into something that generates cash).

[sulam]

Not uncalled for at all. The people talking to me about Bitcoin and how big it is are almost all in their 20’s. They have a vague idea about the Internet bubble but they certainly didn’t live through it in any meaningful way. It’s like someone telling me I can’t properly appreciate the 70’s since I didn’t experience them as an adult. It’s totally true!