[krrrh]

> isn’t the majority of a stock's value due to speculation on what it will be worth one day in the future?

It’s more accurate to say that it’s a reflection of the value to still be generated by the productive capacity that your share represents minus the discount-rate of future money. That’s mostly a multiple of expected earnings (plus the value of capital) which is why earnings calls are so important and heavily regulated. If you buy a stock you’re saying that you think the market has undervalued it, or that it’s fairly valued and you expect it to grow with the economy as a whole.

In a pure gambling scenario like a lottery or roulette wheel all the information you have to go on is contained within the game itself. Increasingly crypto-trading is less about the fundamentals and more about the trading game itself. We’ve watched Ethereum go from one screw up to the next: TheDAO hack and rollback, the first Parity wallet hack, the “I killed it” bug, all ethereum contracts being hobbled for a weekend by a cartoon cat breeding game. Every time there is a big discussion here about the fundamentals of the tech, and how flawed the design is, how there are better approaches or projects. Yet the price is totally disconnected and responds more to being listed on a new exchange than any consideration of the viability or usefulness of the thing itself.

It’s why technical trading, which is close to reading tea leaves when it comes to usefulness on equity markets, actually seems to work in crypto-asset markets. So many people fall back on in the absence or neglect of external information that it that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.