[lojack]

A year ago, no one knew the price was going to go up 1000%, so some amount of luck is involved. Price could have just as easily stayed the same or even gone down 90%. If you bought in there is some amount of risk involved.

The 70% profit made by an arbitrage opportunity doesn't require you to guess where the price will go in the next 12 months. You know for a fact that as long as neither of these companies go bankrupt, you'll be making 70% on your investment.