Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by fuddcoinn 3103 days ago
if they doubled money supply and distributed it 1 for 1 to all current dollar holders then in theory the expected price increases (inflation refers only to money supply amount, despite popular usage) would occur before any of the new dollars were spent into circulation.

if they doubled the money supply, evenly distributed it AND those new dollars were all spent at the same velocity then the expected price increase would certainly happen.

distribution & velocity are huge.

the ability of the new dollars to debase the old dollars only happens when they are spent into the economy.

the first parties to get and spend the new dollars receive the benefit side of inflation/price increases.

these bankers and economists will try to take credit for anything that has a positive twist to it, statistically speaking, but dont be fooled the central banks have very few tools and common sense + gut instinct is your friend when you're living underneath a government instituting financial repression (macroprudental policy).

1 comments

If they doubled money supply and distributed 1 for 1 to all current dollar holders, lots of debt would get immediately paid off. Unless you are also proposing doubling everyone's debts. But, if not, then this will cause "debt deflation" rather than the inflation you are postulating.
Would debt be immediately paid off though? Would people be able to, considering the overall price increases? And if so, how long until they’re in debt again because they can’t keep up with increased prices (since they spent their printed money to pay their debt?)
> Would debt be immediately paid off though?

Yes. We all know a lot of people with mortgages, student debt, and credit card debt, who if suddenly given a government handout that would double their savings, would immediately pay off their debts. But I can't claim that all debts would be paid.

> Would people be able to, considering the overall price increases?

Of course people would be able to pay off their current balance if you hand them money. What do price increases have to do with this? Prices may go up (or may not), but your current balance on your mortgage and your credit card bill do not. And if people anticipate interest rates going up, that motivates them to pay it off sooner rather than later. But note that there is a lot of fixed-rate debt out there (like mortgages) not affected by interest rate hikes.

> And if so, how long until they’re in debt again because they can’t keep up with increased prices (since they spent their printed money to pay their debt?)

You keep assuming that prices would go up. Prices are determined by supply and demand. It has been claimed on this thread that prices will go up exactly 2x, but this claim has not been substantiated whatsoever. One potential mechanism for this would be a substantial increase in aggregate demand, as a result of the handout, but much of the money would go into paying off debt instead. This is called "debt deflation". So prices might not go up nearly as much as you are claiming they would.