[stevenwoo]

Trump would have lost if he lost 80,000 votes in three states that could swing the electoral college. That doesn't sound as big a swing as 25 points.

[reednj]

Why not? Trump didn't win them by much, but it can still be a big swing if Obama won these states by a lot. A quick google shows that this appears to be the case.

Trump may have won michigan by only 10k votes, but Obama had a margin of half a million in 2012.