[fpisfun]

They're dying, it may be a very slow death but the process has begun. They will become like Yahoo, Myspace, Aol, etc. They are not a Google that can pivot and do a number of different things. Also I've come to realize that Google has a much different relationship with it's users, Google doesn't try to suck up all your time it just tries to give you what you want when you want it, Facebook tries to gamify everything so that you're constantly checking it's useless drivel.

[skeleton]

I formed the opinion that Facebook (the service) was in trouble back in 2014-2015 when I noticed the site appeared to becoming more about interaction with content posted by 'meme pages' and such rather than content produced by friends.

Facebook as a company will probably be fine as it has its tentacles in all sorts of places now.

[rhizome]

I think a lot of that has to do with the popularization of the meme (image macro) as a form of internet creativity. Facebook certainly was an outlet for that and they didn't impose much if anything to slow it down, but so was everywhere else you can post an image.

[ZenoArrow]

They've maintained their positions through acquisitions. Facebook itself could be on a slow decline, but if Instagram and Whatsapp do well are they really dying?

[adjkant]

What I would be worried about is that the same practices of monetization that killed Facebook are seeping into Instagram. At what point are they just a poison that slowly kills anything it touches? I think they already are but the deaths are slow.

[jdironman]

I think they realize this though. Just milking the cow now. Anyone smart enough realizes social media itself is relatively new and volatile. They have to be fluid / versatile in their investments and services other wise people just simply move to the latest and greatest platform. That's what happened in the early days with Myspace / Facebook. A business built upon this kind of product is a business built upon sand. It moves and shifts. There is no one size fits all. At least I don't think so anyways.

[adjkant]

You're right.

This makes me really sad that this is the goal of Facebook, who will then serve only the goal of capitalizing on the latest and greatest type of platform format (by acquisition or copying) for social media while systematically and methodically milking the patience of their users with ads.

[MarkMc]

Their active user count increases in every region every year. Their revenue is growing 50% per year.

They are not dying.

[opportune]

This isn't a precise way of thinking about things, but I really think the most important part of maintaining the success of a social network is being "cool", or rather, being the social network that cool people use.

I don't know the data, but my assumption is that facebook's user count isn't really continuing to grow among young people in developed countries. Like it or not, this demographic is usually what defines what it means to be cool. Would people in Indonesia and India join Facebook if it were mostly old people and people from their own countries? I doubt it - they would know what young people in other countries truly prefer, plus they would likely be better served by a local alternative. Would old people join Facebook if their children and younger relatives used something else? I doubt that too.

Facebook wanted to grab Snap, and did grab Instagram, so that it could maintain its monopoly on the social media that "cool" people use. All we need is more companies like Snap not willing to be bought out for Facebook to see a big hit in this market segment. I think that's the long term threat to Facebook

[_jgdh]

> Would people in Indonesia and India join Facebook if it were mostly old people and people from their own countries

Shockingly, people join networks that are used by people they know and their circle of friends is in their own country, for most part. If you think young Indian people are desperately trying to copy what's cool in America you'd have to explain why Whatsapp has been (and continues to be) the dominant network in India, despite being a minor player in America.

[sumedh]

> you'd have to explain why Whatsapp has been (and continues to be) the dominant network in India

you have to pay for each sms in India so people preferred watsapp which was free for unlimited sms.

The interface is simple even my mom understands how to use watsapp without me explaining how to use it.

[fpisfun]

This is the case in many countries, is this way in Venezuela too, for example

[danielhooper]

> I really think the most important part of maintaining the success of a social network is being "cool", or rather, being the social network that cool people use.

Facebook hasn't been "cool" in almost 10 years. Their IPO was in 2012, and like pretty much any other teenager would've at the time, I thought it was about to die off because our moms were starting to use it.

[fpisfun]

Trust me that if they lose a lot of users in the US but gain users in some place like India or China they will be much worse off. It takes a lot of users from those places to equal one US user due to massive income differences so ads shown to them are much less valuable

[skc]

Really?

Every SV think piece I read has Facebook, Apple, Google and Amazon as the unassailable leaders of the industry.

HN comments would have one believe that everybody hates Facebook when the reality is that most regular people find it very useful.

And on top of that, there is a certain amount of hypocrisy here. How many HN commenters who hate Facebook, still work for startups that have (and profit off of) a Facebook presence?

I'd bet most.

[loriverkutya]

I'm not sure you are aware, but you are not the startup you work for. (or at least most people are not)

And in reality maybe Facebook is useful, it is still designed and built for one purpose (as every company in world), to maximize profit. And they are doing it by turning their users into dopamine addicts. So it does not matter if it has useful functions when it turns you into an addict.

[sprash]

If you look at the Facebook chart you see a classic runaway gap in July 2013. Historically those gaps always get closed. This means it will eventually fall back to 20/30 USD (currently 175 USD). The question is just when.

[ship_it]

Seriously tho, I know at least 40 persons from my inner circle that left FB in last two years. To be honest, I feel stupid by ever registering but what now. Guess it's times for other, Facebook does not add any life-social values at all.

[rsp1984]

Google doesn't try to suck up all your time it just tries to give you what you want when you want it

Yea, and spy you out completely in the process, then sell your data to the highest bidder. Can't decide if I'm more creeped out by FB or big G.

[dingo_bat]

Honestly, I have recently been trying not to use anything from google or facebook. I try to use stuff from Microsoft and apple. These are straightforward businesses that I pay to use. No bullshit ads or other hidden shit. A big impediment has been the utterly low quality of the apple music app on android.

[melq]

Wonder who knows more about us at this point, FB or Google?

[beager]

Google has built ad products on data about what you want, and Facebook has built ad products on data about who you are, which are both natural extensions of the data they receive in order to deliver you their core service. Which constitutes more data or a creepier amount, unsure. But I’m more wary of services that are mashing that data together to get a fuller picture of you.

[melq]

>But I’m more wary of services that are mashing that data together to get a fuller picture of you.

Certainly that must describe Facebook, and I would think Google as well?

[seppin]

I'd say it's pretty even