[generalizethis]

It's ironic that wall street spent so many years saying Bitcoin is worthless, but is buying-in when it's lost its use case to competitors within cryptocurrency, and really is useless (except as a speculative vehicle or "store of value"). I guess BTC can fork infinitely, so there's that.

[Cthulhu_]

I think they (or some of them) are jumping on top of it because now they've got an abstracted (and regulated) market product, something that should come with a lot less risk and with interactions with the existing stock market systems. They don't care about bitcoin, they care about the futures market, speculating with virtual products (= futures) on virtual products (which used to be physical ones like oil and tulips and whatnot).

[em3rgent0rdr]

Actually, Lightning Network will significantly increase Bitcoin's transactions per second and reduce transaction cost.

[uncoder0]

If Segwit adoption (~12% after launching toward the end of August) by 3rd parties is any indicator even if lightning released today we wouldn't be seeing huge benefits for months if not years.

There is a certain elegance to increasing the block size as it allows you to continue using the chain as you've been using it for years (on-chain transactions). As a bitcoin community member for nearly its entire history myself and others have worked hard to get the level of merchant adoption we enjoyed in early 2016. Today bitcoin is accepted in less places than it was 2 years ago and transacting with is is a luxury only reserved for us privileged early adopters. It was never supposed to be this way.

[em3rgent0rdr]

Lightning Network has already proven themselves using real bitcoins in test videos. Don't want to deploy too fast at risk of making major screwup, so patience is necessary. Trying to modify bitcoin core such as with a blocksize increase has proven to be impracticably. So Lightning Network has a much greater chance than modifying bitcoin itself.

[theadamp]

In 18 months ;)

[Klathmon]

To be fair, Lightning works, and it works now on the Bitcoin mainnet.

The idea is sound, the code is written and somewhat tested, and it has been used in a very controlled fashion on the real bitcoin network already.

At this point it's just a matter of further testing and validation that the logic is sound and there isn't anything everyone is missing, and getting vendors on board and adoption started.

Still no guarantee it will happen, but it's looking more likely that it will at least make a good push, and it's no longer a vaporware promise of "in 18 months".

[FireBeyond]

I'm struggling to find references, so apply salt as needed, but I'm fairly sure I've read multiple references to the fact that the LN developers themselves describe it as pre-alpha and still a few years away.

Which, to be clear, isn't necessarily vaporware - I think most people are in agreement that the concepts are sound, but that integration of the execution into the mainstream are quite a ways off.

[Klathmon]

It is still "early alpha" but bitcoin developers use that term as it was meant to be used.

"early alpha" is just that, early access to a fully working product with all the features that are needed, and it needs a LOT of testing and validation. And because of the "network" nature of it, it needs people or vendors that are willing to try it out before it can even be tested outside of controlled areas.

I agree that we are probably a few years (probably more than a "few") from Lightning being the "default" way to use bitcoin, but I fully expect by Q3 of next year there to be a few vendors which accept lightning natively, and a few "consumer friendly" wallets that have some integration.

In my opinion, I wouldn't want to call it "beta" until there are a few implementations with "user friendly" UI that abstract away the dirty details, and until there are at least enough people on the "network" that it would be feasible to actually use it.

If you want, [0] is a video from last week that shows lightning network running on mainnet. It's a bit of a "fluff video" with nothing really substantial in it, but it at least shows that it's working, and if you compile the tools he used in the video yourself (to target them at mainnet) then you could do it right now too, but without anyone to "network" with, it's kind of pointless right now...

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a73Gz3Tvx3k

[spookthesunset]

Or 20, or 30, or just maybe never. I'll see it when I believe it...

[generalizethis]

"Soon"