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by pentae 3117 days ago
I can't wrap my head around this. Who is silly enough to sell bitcoins for 'worthless' Tether?
3 comments

Why not. Sell your coin to tether to weather short term price dips and transfer between exchanges.... If tether is unsustainable long term, who cares?
If the fire that this smoke points to is really there, someday soon a lot of people are going to be left holding a bag of worthless tethers. That'd be a pretty bad day, wouldn't it? Kinda like being stuck in Mt. Gox during the end days.
sure, you just have to move quickly, which USDT enables you to do (versus USD, which to do transfers has ECH delays).
I don't think we're talking about the same problem here. If the day comes that Tethers are proven to be insolvent (because there isn't actually a USD in reserve for each Tether in circulation), moving quickly won't make a damn bit of difference. You can't quickly unload an asset when there is no taker. Somebody will be left holding a big fat stack of nothing.

I don't know what's going on with Tethers, honestly, it's not something I've followed very closely; so this may not be a problem at all (and if it's not, I would assume the people involved would be eager to get an audit done and results published so the money train can keep rolling). I'm just saying that unless you believe strongly that Tethers are backed 1:1 by USD, it would be irrational to hold Tethers, even for a short time.

I found it worrying that when the guy they interviewed tried to move his Tethers to another exchange, he couldn't find enough takers (and Bitfinex wouldn't let him exchange for dollars either). So, the argument that Tethers trading at roughly $1USD across exchanges is "proof" that Tethers are sound is shaky, at best. If you can't sell more than a handful of Tethers without crashing the market for Tethers, it's not actually the market setting the price. Something else is going on...something that would be illegal in a regulated market.

You'll be able to unload, but basically only into other crypto. Exchanges that deal with crypto will see crypto prices skyrocket, then shortly collapse, as people buy BTC or other coins then try to move to other exchanges to sell for real USD.
Why would anyone sell you crypto for Tethers if Tethers are found to have no USD backing? I mean...isn't that the entire point of Tethers?
If it's 1-1 to USD, why not just swap coin for USD?
That's the point, you can't do that now and more than likely ever...
What are you talking about? I can do so easily on gdax.com and I assume other places as well.
I saw a bitcoin ATM at the mall the other day.

I get that I guess it's not easy for someone in a major city or whatever.

Then you'd have to pay capital gains taxes.
> who cares?

Cryptocurrency markets are dominated by highly rational traders with deep pockets.

Just because a bunch of newbies are buying 0.002 BTC on Coinbase doesn't change that fact.

Highly rational traders with deep pockets do care. Getting hand-wavy talking about "irrational markets" doesn't adequately explain why Tethers trade at parity to USD.

People without USD accounts. To them selling for USD is just getting them a promise of USD which they're never going to cash out anyway.
People who want a liquid USD tethered asset on many exchanges and aren't needlessly paranoid over absurd conspiracy theories that have yet to present a single ounce of real evidence.
Precautionary Principle.

Likelihood of a problem x the cost of the problem happening = how much you should worry/care/act

When someone asks 'how sure you are' about something and you say 'really sure', unless you pull out a slide deck with numbers and graphs, that's an emotional estimate, and has no bearing on the precautionary principle. We naked apes get tripped up by this because we are used to dealing in social interactions, where your intuition works pretty well. Statistics, not so much.

You loan your friend your car when you're pretty sure that they won't wreck it, scratch it, make it smell like pork rinds. A business is not your friend. There's no social capital at play. Without that social capital you would never lend your car to a business. You don't owe them the benefit of the doubt nor do you reap a non-monetary benefit from doing so. Only when there is such a benefit (community building, networking, etc) would you even consider doing so.

I have certainly defended companies in forums because I felt they represented some part of a world I wanted to live in. That's my social capital in that case. The best way to predict the future is to create it, and I had a small part in that. I participated.

But in this case if you're wrong, instead of losing out on a toy, or a pillow that is always the exact right temperature, or a fridge that always has chocolate milk in it, you're going to lose money, face, and probably that world you hoped for. There's been enough shenanegans that the confirmation bias that kicks in if Tether is allowed to continue to grow and turns out to be a pyramid scheme has a real potential to have deleterious effects on the whole concept.

How willing are you to back Tether if it means there will never be a similar company that is actually legitimate? What are the objective odds of that outcome at this point? If you really want this world, you should be demanding transparency from everyone you support in this space at this point.

Bitfinex is also lacking in evidence when it comes to showing that Tethers are backed by USD.
This is what regulation is for. No regulation? Then people are stealing. History suggests it's that simple.
How would they prove it? Twitter a picture of the bank balance?
At the very least, inform the public about which banking institutions they are currently using ever since Wells Fargo dropped out.

Contracting a reputable firm to conduct an in-depth audit and publicly releasing the results would also be a useful step.

And not refuse to name banks without an NDA signed and in place...
Did I misread the article, or weren't the banks they refused to name the banks involved in shutting them out of the US?