| Joel is making two separate claims there, though he doesn't cleanly distinguish them. One is that rewriting from scratch is going to give you a worse result than incremental change from a technical point of view (the « absolutely no reason to believe that you are going to do a better job than you did the first time » bit). The second is that independent of the technical merits, rewriting from scratch will be a bad commercial decision (the « throwing away your market leadership » bit). We now know much more about how this turned out for his chosen example, and I think it's clear he was entirely wrong about the first claim (which he spends most of his time discussing). Gecko was a great technical success, and the cross-platform XUL stuff he complains about turned out to have many advantages (supporting plenty of innovation in addons which I don't think we'd have seen otherwise). It's less clear whether he's right about the second: certainly Netscape did cede the field to IE for several years, but maybe that would have happened anyway: Netscape 4 wasn't much of a platform to build on. I think mozilla.org considered as a business has done better than most people would have expected in 2000. |
One of the big issues with software engineering advice is that it is really hard to find apples-to-apples comparisons for outcomes.