[PeterisP]

Assuming that the above list has a 10% chance of happening, that would be 10 times more remarkable than life starting on Earth in the first place; since you'd have the probability of adding water and heat to a (non-Earth) planet and waiting a few billion years for life and that whole list as well.

[bdamm]

We don't know precisely what the ideal concoction is for life to get started, nor can we measure how close to ideal our planet is relative to others. So maybe Earth is not the most efficient planet at developing life, and in that case, the probability equation could tip back to panspermia.