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None of us can know since it would require seeing into the future & bitcoin has no historical precedence of trading during a recession.

My hunch is it gets absolutely slaughtered. It's a guage of risk seeking appetite IMO & historically when the "turn" occurs the assets folks are holding with the most gains are liquidated the most aggressively because they need to finance the losses.

.com stocks in the late 90's got smoked & it's where people had the most gains. housing in 07-09 got smoked & it's where people had the most gains. Safe haven trades even got smoked like low yield & gold because they could be used as a source of funds.

Another illustration was Bernie Madoff. He didn't close up shop because he got busted - he turned himself in because he had no money left. People were using him as an ATM during the crisis. He had very nice slow & steady returns that you'd think in a crisis would be great in a portfolio that's getting smashed. Nope. It's a source of funds. People withdrew from him like crazy cause they needed the money & it's only then that he turned himself in.