| The historical pattern is each time an economic downturn occurs they use more aggressive interventionism. The next time is different? No. The "economists" you're talking about don't matter. They have no voting power over monetary policy. All fed govenors that control monetary policy at all the major central banks speak daily about how inflation is subdued, possibly a long-term phenomenon, & indicates plenty of slack in the labor force. If I drank every time Janet Yellen said "inflation remains well anchored for the foreseeable future" in just 2017 then I'd be passed out asphyxiated. Ben Bernanke himself just recently authored a piece indicating the next series of tools to use in future crisis since rate cuts won't have as much impact at historical low levels (surprise more aggressive! price fixing & negative rates in the US). He did a tour in Japan discussing the use of "Helicopter Money" in the next crisis. Basically anybody that has any ability to control monetary policy is running away from what you think & say at an accelerating pace. They have a deep bench of folks to maintain that groupthink too so don't expect one of your enlightened economists to be in a position of power any time soon. Economists don't matter in determining real life, real world monetary policy. Fed governors & politicians do.. repeat that to yourself in front of a mirror because you are confused. Remember QE didn't just happen. It was TARP, QE1, QE2, Operation TWIST, QE3 (open ended). Across the pond it was QE, Corporate bond buying, negative interest rates, yield pegs. It always progresses every single time. In fact, the burden of proof is on you to find an economic down turn with decreasing interventionism on behalf of the central banks. Japan started QE in 2001. Now they have over 1 quadrillion (yes that's real not me being tongue in cheek) in debt primarily owned by the BOJ & the BOJ now owns a stunning >70% of the entire domestic ETF market & are still buying at record clips. They are outright buying stocks! The SNB is actively buying stocks.. in fact they own a shit ton of Apple. Why is the SNB printing money & buying Apple? Look it up they issue the equivalent of a 13d form.. it will blow your nips off at how much more extreme they get every single day. I can cite every single thing & will if you don't believe me but simple google searches from the central banks own research firms are where I get my data. The next crisis will have any or all of the following MORE EXTREME central bank "tools" deployed: capital controls, selling bans, negative rates (possibly on depositors), outright buying of stocks via ETF's, outright buying of corporate debt by the NY-FED, price fixing of 10 year treasuries, helicopter money. Timestamp this shit cause it's gold son. |