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by mrb 3126 days ago
Bids on an exchange's order book are definitely backed by dollars. I don't know why you insist they aren't.

You use strange language. Maybe the scenario you mean to describe is not about lack of deposits or lack of float, but is a classic panic sale (ie. order books not deep enough to absorb all asks). Yes, this could happen with Bitcoin, or basically any financial instrument: stocks, forex, etc.

As someone who has been trading bitcoins since 2010, I will retort that market depths have definitely been growing over time. I don't have precise data to show you, but for example GDAX's BTC/USD order book accounts for 1/20th of the worldwide BTC trading volume. Right now selling 3600 BTC on GDAX would net $30M and dip the price -20%. Assuming the same depth at other exchanges, this means traders could globally sell 72000 BTC at the same instant for $600 million and dip the price by only 20%. That's a pretty decent market depth.

If market depth grew proportionally to Bitcoin's price, it would mean that 7 years ago when Bitcoin was trading at $0.25 (1/36000th its current price: http://bitcoin.zorinaq.com/price/) then a sale of $16k worth of Bitcoins would have dipped the price by 20%. I don't know if we can find archives of MtGox's trading data from 2010, but I roughly remember selling blocks of 1000 BTC at a time on Mtgox for $0.70-1.00/BTC in February 2011 and each of my sale would dip the price by a few percents.

So my (vague) recollection seems to indicate I'm probably right that market depth increased proportionally to Bitcoin's price. Therefore Bitcoin would have been at an equal risk of a panic sale at any point in the last 7 years. And the fact there has never been a long-term panic sale is a testament to Bitcoin's resilience. The markets are deeper and are more resistant than you think.