[ben_w]

Being “well known” solves precisely zero of the things which causes software projects to fail.

Being seen as a “low-risk-high-return investment” attracts developers, but only until it stops delivering that promise.

That said, my claim is that most will fail, not that all will fail. You may think that’s weasel words, but I will not accept a currency that even has a 10% chance of failing in 15 years (and if you think that’s harsh, imagine being a bank and taking a 10% risk of default on a relatively short 15 year mortgage), and judging by both http://deadcoins.com (looks like 600 entries, I stopped counting at 200) and the Wikipedia claim that there are over 1172 currencies, that risk is much, much higher than 10%.

[pmarreck]

http://www.rapidtrends.com/history-of-fiat-and-paper-money-f...

I see your list of cryptocoin failures and raise you a list of fiatcoin failures (granted, the latter list, which is much longer, was accumulated over a much larger timescale...)

[bonestamp2]

That's fair and you're probably right about most. I just wouldn't skip out on bitcoin because most other coins will go away.

Bitcoin is the google of cryptocurrencies... it's going to be the leader for a long time.

[ben_w]

I’d describe Bitcoin as the AltaVista of cryptocurrencies: an early lead, people will remember it, but not fundamentally all that great and liable to be replaced as soon as someone invents a good (and trusted) alternative.

It might survive… but there’s no way I’d risk money I couldn’t afford to lose the way I would with any G20 economy’s fiat currency.