[yosyp]

My pet theory is that the long-term reasoning for artificially limiting the number of residencies/medical school spots is to avoid an oversupply of healthcare professionals after the baby-boomers die off in 15-20 years.

Sure, there is tremendous strain (and consequently profit to be made) in the system now, at the expense of overworked doctors with limited interaction with their patients. But if the supply of doctors met market demand _right now_, in 20 years there would be an over supply. An over supply of doctors would introduce a new set of problems associated with lower salaries and eventually lower quality of care (see Soviet Union). So in a way, this artificial market manipulation of the supply of doctors is forcing innovation and timing the population market, and betting on medical advances that will eliminate many doctor visits through preventative medicine or computer asssisted diagnostics.

Essentially the AMA is lobbying to prevent a scenario that created the artificial STEM shortage myth in the 1990's that new career scientists have still not recovered from.

[JamesBarney]

How did having too many doctors cause an decrease in quality of care in the Soviet Union?

And the AMA is lobbying for decreased slots because it increases their salary. American doctor's pay is way out of line with the rest of the developed world.