[the_rosentotter]

There has got to be an astroturfing campaign going on here, or the HN crowd is a lot more naive than I thought. Seriously, no one is concerned that Tesla is announcing, not one, but two new products, while they are failing to deliver on all three they are currently producing (in terms of production ramp-up)? What matters more than anything to Tesla is production at scale, but they are busy promising ever more fantastic new products that will distract even more from hitting core goals. Every announcement from Tesla seems more like flimflam at this point, hardly better than an ICO (with preordering and everything).

That's not even getting into Elon Musk's ever expanding personal commitments with Tesla, SpaceX, Boring company, Solar City and what have you, each making bold new announcements every other week, like saving Puerto Rico (and Australia too, while we're at it).

[AndrewDucker]

Tesla seem to be doing ok in Puerto Rico: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/tesla-puert...

Australia work is 80% complete: http://reneweconomy.com.au/musk-says-tesla-big-battery-now-8...

There are definitely issues with the Model 3 - but I'd imagine that the production line for the Semi will ramp up significantly after the Model 3 is working, and will involve an entirely separate team.

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2017/11/teslas-hell-threatens-its...

[icc97]

Elon Musk said it himself with the Model 3:

> Assume the worst [0]

So sure we should be skeptical about the actual deadlines. But they're trying to compete against BMW & Mercedes (plus numerous other brands, but it seems like those two are their main competition). It's not like those are terrible companies, they've produced cars and engineering discipline of the highest quality for nearly a century.

I'd be more worried if there's some major flaw in the car, like if it's got the reliability of an 80s Jaguar (of which the stories about breakdowns in the gizmodo article are the biggest concern). The issues coming out about panel misalignment are bad (but I noted that my VW Golf I'm just buying wasn't perfect either), but not end of the world.

Still though my inner child doesn't care, it still gets very excited when car manufacturers show unrealistic made up cars [1]. But it seems like the Roadster might actually happen and it's nice to see the Roadster getting some love after being the car that started it all.

[0]: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/916407361899708416

[1]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-07/lamborghi...

[monk_e_boy]

Exactly. I've working in a few places that when product slips management panic and throw more bodies at it. Then the team swells with sales people, admin assistants, shop floor dudes... and none of them have a clue what is going on or what to do to help. All while management is shouting and the project is slipping more.

Better to let the team crack on and fix all the issues. Pay them well.

[aerovistae]

> Seriously, no one is concerned that Tesla is announcing, not one, but two new products, while they are failing to deliver on all three they are currently producing (in terms of production ramp-up)?

It's almost like.....there's nothing to say about Model 3 right now, where the bulk of their effort is going, because it's just a matter of steadily toiling away ramping up production, just like they said all along. It's almost like....a proportionately tiny amount of their engineering resources have been working on these other projects for some time, and they're just announcing them because.....they're ready to be shown off, and are unrelated to the Model 3 progress.

It's almost like....you're determined to cast this in a negative light, like so many others.

[makomk]

They're not just announcing the Tesla Roadster here, they're opening up pre-orders for it too, with a substantial up-front deposit of either the entire price of the car or a fifth of it depending on how early in the queue you want to be. While they're having major problems delivering on their big current product they took in a fairly substantial amount of money in reservation fees for.

[simonbarker87]

Hitting production targets isn't enough to keep wall street happy with Tesla though, to keep raising money and servicing the debt that they have, he needs to keep creating value inflection points to stoke the hype and keep the money coming in.

I agree that the main concern should be delivering cars but production delays are solvable while he is still raising money. As soon as he takes his foot off the pedal then their ability to raise money will be much harder than it is while he is announcing new stuff and increasing their risk of going under.

Worst case scenario with his current strategy: they run out of money and an acquirer buys them for the cost of their debt and gets a company with a fully fleshed out product roadmap and some solvable production issues (and no need to solve those issues quickly).

Drop the new product roadmap and focus on production: the going under acquisition is less attractive as they would be acquiring a company with a limited product roadmap and a load of production issues.

He is showing that the future is going to be so amazing that it is worth pouring money into Tesla.

[lovemenot]

>> Worst case scenario with his current strategy: they run out of money and an acquirer buys them for the cost of their debt and gets a company ...

Yes. And the acquiring company could be Apple, which has cash and past form in buying a company for its charismatic CEO.

Years from now, I would not be surprised to find out that a handshake deal occurred last Summer, just before Apple apparently stopped trying to make a car.

[oblio]

I like what Tesla & co. are doing, I think Musk is very good at hyping things up and mostly pointing us in a good direction development wise, but I'm not a fanboy. Especially considering what I've read about Musk's personal life and his attitude to employees.

Even so, if Uber can have several billion dollars pumped into it, surely Tesla is more deserving of investments on the same scale.

[sremani]

Elon Musk has a decade of track record. Model 3 will eventually be delivered. My point of contention with TSLA is that the stock price does not match the up-side, but sooner or later Tesla always delivered. They will learn and deliver, I have seen reviews of Model 3, the average delivered vehicle will cost around 50K no doubt, but its worth every penny of it. Model 3 is not every man's car, but again a used Model 3 can be.

I am really impressed by Elon, even if fails spectacularly he has set things in motion his impact will be there in the fields he touched. In my opinion, he is better than Steve Jobs both in vision and execution.

[briandear]

I would say vision is comparable to Jobs, but execution— not yet. The problem is a lack of focus and a lot of distraction with big public announcements before actually figuring out how to ship. Jobs (and Cook’s) advantage over Musk in the Tesla context is that they considered the supply chain as vital as the flash and sparkle. Supply chain isn’t sexy but it’s essential. Tesla’s supply chain is fragile to say the least and should be focused upon. Musk’s execution isn’t there yet. Jobs created/launched an iPad and it shipped millions. Waiting times for an iPhone rarely have exceeded a few weeks because their supply chain is solid. But getting a replacement fender for a Model S? Good luck with that.

If I were a Tesla investor, the only thing I would care about is supply chain efficiency. We know Tesla can innovate and titilate — but can they ship?

My advice to Musk would be: announce things after you can ship them reliably and at scale. Less sparkle more shipping. Prove you can ship the 3, then I might be confident you can ship a truck.

I really like Musk and Tesla, but there is a hell of a lot more involved with changing the world than creating essentially limited edition concept cars — you actually have to ship. Based on the 3, it’s clear that there are some execution issues that still need solving.

[grkvlt]

> vision is comparable to Jobs, but execution — not yet

Dunno, Jobs failed at execution more than once. Look at the Lisa for example. The Roadster could be the NeXT cube of the EV world?

[rubzah]

It's the software equivalent of adding new exciting features rather than doing boring work on bug fixing and stability.

[lhnz]

Elon Musk is an engineer.

If his production line isn't as efficient as it should be it will get fixed 'scientifically'. I'd agree with you if his background was different.

[justsomeguy99]

>Elon Musk is an engineer. If his production line isn't as efficient as it should be it will get fixed 'scientifically'. I'd agree with you if his background was different.

I forgot that Elon Musk is single handedly changing the way assembly line engineering is done...

How about a little respect to the thousands of capable engineers working for every other car company-- building stuff, innovating and making money.

Also, what is with calling people who aren't engineers "engineers"?

[lhnz]

Putting words in my mouth.

My point is that he has enough engineering know-how to let engineers do their jobs and prioritise methodical fixes, not that he will single-handedly do the work.

[ainiriand]

The supercharger network is expanded to Ireland too. They move, even if they hit some bumps along the way.

[zionic]

I couldn't agree more, the number of anti-Tesla comments here are staggering.

You could literally copy-paste comments from the Roaster v1, Model S, and Model X launches and relate them to the Model 3. All of those were a success, and had initial production ramp issues.

Guess what, they all ramped. I can't tell you how disappointing it is to see the HN crowd fall for the SeekingAlpha narrative.

[larkeith]

I would suggest the opposite; This type of cynicism over Tesla and Musk's other companies seems ever-increasingly popular and widespread, despite relatively few failures and setbacks - which are outweighed by the numerous earlier successes showing both Tesla's and Musk's ability to deliver on far more difficult challenges.

[kamaal]

I guess that is the genius of Elon Musk.

He has already failed once, was bankrupt and almost broke. And struggled to make rents and has climbed out of it.

Failure doesn't mean much for people like this, they win a lot of things along the way even if they fail.

[jabretti]

> Seriously, no one is concerned that Tesla is announcing, not one, but two new products, while they are failing to deliver on all three they are currently producing (in terms of production ramp-up)?

I dunno man, every time before I've said "Tesla/SpaceX can't possibly do that", they've succeeded in doing it (albeit usually a year or so behind schedule) so I've given up trying to tell them what they can't do.