My perspective the market is already structured this way. In the freelance consulting world, I see two types of competent programmers:
1) People who can take high level business goals, articulate them into software APIs/specifications, and then implement the code
2) People who can take specifications and deliver code
People in the first group tend to earn upper middle class incomes. People in the second group already tend to earn proletarian incomes. The upside here for programmers is immediate payout for tightly-specified work.
If AI can write an interesting sentence, it's clear that soon enough it will be able to write software. Especially software that is a variation on a typical CRUD app. My prediction is the biggest value add activity will be having the experience to know what is possible and then knowing what and how to direct the AI to write.
There's no reason that slow programmers should be denied work, but they should not be compensated at the same clip as fast programmers. Great developers often go into management if they want to make more money. The current market dynamic punishes developers for getting "good" and drains the programming market of its best talent.
My perspective the market is already structured this way. In the freelance consulting world, I see two types of competent programmers:
1) People who can take high level business goals, articulate them into software APIs/specifications, and then implement the code
2) People who can take specifications and deliver code
People in the first group tend to earn upper middle class incomes. People in the second group already tend to earn proletarian incomes. The upside here for programmers is immediate payout for tightly-specified work.
If AI can write an interesting sentence, it's clear that soon enough it will be able to write software. Especially software that is a variation on a typical CRUD app. My prediction is the biggest value add activity will be having the experience to know what is possible and then knowing what and how to direct the AI to write.