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by oh_teh_meows
3147 days ago
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OP's probably referring to induced demand [0], or something similar to Braess's paradox [1]. But I see your point though. If people are incentivized to share a car then that might reduce the load. That said, my suspicion is, once you take the driver out of the equation, you can do so much more than just ferrying people. E.g courier/shipping services, or mobile food stalls (food truck that sells food while moving on the highway, once engineers figure out how to safely and autonomously speed match two cars), etc. The induced demand may be greater than the savings from ride-sharing. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braess%27s_paradox |
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I will give you one great example of 'Exponential adoption' happened in recent history of technology.
In the year 1998, at the early days of Internet, we used have only WIRED Broadband Router. Everybody has a 100 Feet CAT 5 cable in the home, when you need to connect a different computer/laptop you change that CAT 5 to that ROOM from Router. 100 Feet CAT 5 wire used to cost $75 those days.
When Wireless ROUTER are released in the next 10 months, at the cost of $100 every body bought, it is no brainer instead of Buying couple of CAT5 100 Feet wires which each cost $75 and still inconvenient .
In my memory this is the most RAPID adoption in a matter of one year , whole USA moved to Bought WIRELESS Routers.
Same thing will happen with , Electric Self-driving on-demand summon CARS where it costs $200/month using it any time vs. owing CAR costs $400/month ( insurance , Gasoline , etc.. )