[dustrider]

GP's point is that the truly breakout success redefine what it means to be successful. e.g. Google wasn't taken seriously because there was no money on the internet, MS wasn't taken seriously cos there was no money in software, etc. etc. You don't see the revolution coming, you're in it or you're not.

With FUD and spin making such big motions on startups (see diaspora 2 months ago) you're as well off making random bets, bets on personality or some other arbitrary factor that works for you.

There isn't a winning strategy, or all invested startups would succeed, so it's pretty much a die roll. People like PG pick a few criteria that work for them and to some measure stack the deck in their favour, but it is and will always be a gamble.