[chegra]

I think PG is on the right track with his investing strategy.

Lets say his probability of finding the next Google with this rule was a arbitary value of 0.001. I wouldn't know its exact value but I'm assuming it's non-zero.

He would have to invest in 693 companies before he has a 50% chance of hitting a google. I don't think they have gone that far as yet. It's just a matter of time.

[jacquesm]

There are hundreds of thousands (millions?) of web companies, there is one google, and maybe 50 or so (extremely successful) companies where investors from a seed fund had a chance to get in on the bottom rung they way YC wants to have it.

The chances of finding 'the next google' are a lot smaller than what you think they are, but the chances of scoring a really big hit (on the order of 10's of millions in terms of ROI for YC) are pretty good.