[bolmn]

Paul, thanks for the comment and I agree with you: luck and timing are two external factors that have significant influence on the outcome, and strategists have little if any control over either. The only "counsel" I can provide is the idea of being as iterative as possible, and try to adapt / respond to the result (test => observe => refine). If you had $10 to bet on the same probability outcomes, rather than betting all $10 on one outcome, if you could play it by putting $1 on 5 outcomes and reserving the remaining $5 to double down on your highest probability winner, you're much better-positioned, statistically, to come out ahead.

[alexpetralia]

And in a similar vein, you could use the Kelly criterion for how to optimally allocate your time/effort/capital.

[cpeterso]

For those who, like me, didn't know what the Kelly criterion was: In probability theory and intertemporal portfolio choice, the Kelly criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

[jonreem]

For a mathematical treatment of this situation/concept see the Multi Armed Bandit problem.