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by wallace_f
3153 days ago
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This is an interesting line of thought: bitcoin has no intrinsic value--its price represents a supply and demand equillibrium for a (1) money, that is (2) pseudonymous, and (3) not a government currency. If other CCs can offer 2, 3 equally well, the price premium must be due to something different about 1--how well it performs the functions of money. Is it a better Store of Value? How much better of a Medium of Exchange is it, and is it worth the premium? As far as I can tell from my napkin analysis, I would guess that bitcoin appears to be in a pretty speculative bubble. This is assuming Ethereum, and other CCs, are equally capable of fulfilling the functions of bitcoin. |
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I agree with this completely, but think there are a few other factors that will matter in the future but have not yet become widely used. The relative importance of all of these factors has changed over time and will continue to change in the future.
> As far as I can tell from my napkin analysis, I would guess that bitcoin appears to be in a pretty speculative bubble.
Again, I agree. Every time the price of Bitcoin has gone up a great deal in a short time, it's been a bubble caused by speculation or by a new wave of people joining for the first time. Every time that's happened, the bubble has burst. Every time the bubble has burst, it's bottomed out at a level significantly higher than the previous baseline, and every time it's bottomed out it the price has stabilized and ultimately recovered.
If you want to day trade, now is probably a great time to get in - assuming we're still on the way up. If you're wanting to hold long-term, then the safest time to buy will be as soon as the price stabilizes after the next pop. As for me... I buy on a regular basis without regard to the price. I'm something of a "true believer" though, and don't expect to ever sell my entire holdings again.