[auspex]

80% of startups fail and 20% succeed in some fashion. Which means if you normally make $50,000 and take a $5,000 paycut to work there you will lose $20,000 over the 4 year vesting period in salary.

80% of the time when the startup goes bust you make 0 on equity and still lost money due to the paycut. For a total of 8x20 or $160,000 loss.

The two times you are successful you make 2xEquity.

This means your equity has to be at least worth $80,000 each time you succeed.... just to break even with salary.

Factoring in the risk of your equity being 0 you should be getting a LOT more equity.

It's very similar to calculating expected value in poker.