[neverminder]

I'm curious which one will launch first, BFR or New Glenn. My money is on the BFR, so far with 1200 s Raptor engine fire and full size cryo tank they seem to be making progress. It's good to have Blue Origin breathing down SpaceX's neck though, hopefully it will provide them with sustained motivation.

[nickik]

The Raptor has fired more but it is also not finalised in terms of design. The BE-4 is full sized and they don't seem to intend any more changes in the design.

Really the New Glenn competes more with Falcon Heavy then BFR. They are designing a New Armstrong rocket that will be more in the BFR class.

It will be very interesting, in 2020 we have planned New Glenn, Ariane 6, Vulcan and BFR. Falcon Heavy of course will have been flying for a while by then.

[DuskStar]

Raptor test fires have been at ~1,000kN, with a planned thrust of 1700kN, and for 100s burns. I don't think it's fair to say that BE-4 is further along in the development/testing process just from the fact that it has fired at half thrust, since it sure looks like Raptor has too.

[mabbo]

Just imagine what things would look like if SpaceX has a serious failure again. It could drop them back six months, and Blue Origin would get that much closer.

Must be a really good motivator for SpaceX.

[golfer]

Maybe it's a good motivator for SpaceX, but let's look at the macro picture. Blue Origin has zero commercial flights in its history. It is far behind SpaceX. But if BO displays operational expertise and can execute on its plans, it will be an exciting competitor.

Then again, if BO has some setbacks like SpaceX has had (delays, launch failures, etc) then it might not shake up the industry as much as we hope.

[JumpCrisscross]

Tortoise and hare. Blue Origin spends more time designing and testing; SpaceX producing and selling. I tend to default to the latter strategy in most markets, but aerospace is different. The results are and will be interesting.

[greglindahl]

You can say that about any pair of companies where one has a shipping product and the other does not.

[JumpCrisscross]

> You can say that about any pair of companies where one has a shipping product and the other does not

Not necessarily. Rabbits move fast and break things; tortoises plod along deliberately and slowly. This applies to Blue Origin because they’re being deliberately slow and thoughtful, versus lazy or incompetent. Theranos or Magic Leap, for instance, are not tortoises.

[greglindahl]

How is it possible for BO to spend most of their time producing and selling when they don't have a shipping product? How is it possible for SpaceX to spend most of their time designing and testing when they have a shipping product with a lot of market share?

To put it another way, there's nothing in the "most of their time" comparison that you can use to classify either company as a tortoise or a hare: they're just companies at different stages of the company lifecycle.

[nickik]

Why would a Falcon 9 failure set the BFR back six months? The teams working the BFR parts are probably not strongly involved and could just continue working.

It would set them back somewhat, but I don't see why it would be that long.

[foota]

They could lose their launch pad again

[greglindahl]

"Return to flight" activities appear to be a big distraction for the entire company, for example the previous 2 failures caused Falcon Heavy to slip a lot.