[newlyretired]

I just finished all 3 of Taleb's major books, and I took a slightly different interpretation of his Black Swan concept. I am very interested in reading criticisms of his that focus on the material -- most that I've read thus far discuss his writing style, or lack of rigor. (The second is certainly a valid criticism, but I'm looking to engage with his ideas, not the man himself or the broad scientific validity.)

Taleb's Black Swan concept is that unpredictable events happen more frequently than people expect, and have an outsized impact on the outcomes of a model. Events that are not predictable are not included in the predictive model. Take the frequency of event and exclusion from the model, add in asymmetric results (small changes to input parameters can lead to huge changes in outcome), and that's his theory.

Is that accurate? What are the issues with that?