Disagree with the author’s point of view on Netflix. I think it is quite a fragile business, with no monopoly whatsoever. I’m not much of a movie/series consumer though so might be biased about it.
I don't know, they have their own high quality content, and their TV back catalog is good. I would think they have a brighter future than many television companies, especially ones like HBO/Showtime and other special subscription companies.
That said, they have less of a safety net than the others, with no cable deals to fall back on (which are steadily eroding from underneath the others anyway). However, they seem to be very good at knowing how to run their business, so I wouldn't count them out unless some outside forces take effect.
Their name has been synonymous with streaming for a decade, which will keep them entrenched at least a while longer than they would otherwise deserve.
I think if they had a serious stumble, Amazon would just buy them anyway.
I’m not sure how long they get to keep their back catalog. Has anything been licensed indefinitely?
Their business is certainly going to only continue to increase in competitiveness for the foreseeable future. My primary concern, from Netflix’s view, would be Amazon being comfortable buying video content at a loss forever.
> I’m not sure how long they get to keep their back catalog. Has anything been licensed indefinitely?
At a minimum, they have their original series^1. I would assume that, as part of paying for the various shows to be created, Netflix has rights forever.
That's a fair point, but what happens if the various big studios decide to pull their content like Disney has stated they will and create their own Netflix? They just launched Movies Anywhere, so it seems like they're willing to partner up if they need to protect their businesses.
And at that point, Netflix would be indie content and a few real good Netflix shows. Don't know if people would shell out $10 per month essentially for the Netflix shows unless they can churn out high quality ones quicker.
i think if they stumbled, google would be the buyer. or maybe microsoft.
amazon already built their version of netflix, the only thing they would need to acquire is the original content, and consumers seem to be so fickle over content anyways a licensing deal with the real buyer would be better business strategy. (probably).
I think the streaming movie/TV market is the same as any other commoditized market -- the businesses that survive need to find a way to differentiate themselves or offer something nobody else does.
I think the original content is what will keep Netflix alive in the long run. There are a lot of other places to see movies and TV shows, but you can only see Netflix original content on Netflix (unless you pirate it).
I agree with you on Netflix. 5th horsemen candidates on my short list: Microsoft and SoftBank. Tesla if they can stop burning money and cut out the hype? Verizon as a long stretch.
Microsoft was founded in 1975, 42 years ago. People underrate them, but I'd say they're quite resilient. And now they're the #2 player in the cloud segment, so they should cover for their Windows cash cow just fine :)
That said, they have less of a safety net than the others, with no cable deals to fall back on (which are steadily eroding from underneath the others anyway). However, they seem to be very good at knowing how to run their business, so I wouldn't count them out unless some outside forces take effect.
Their name has been synonymous with streaming for a decade, which will keep them entrenched at least a while longer than they would otherwise deserve.
I think if they had a serious stumble, Amazon would just buy them anyway.