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by amelius 3163 days ago
Yes. The original premise of the article is:

> The value of a share of a company is equal to the market's expectation of the present value of its future free cash flows.

Emphasis on "expectation". It may change wildly in the short term; reasons include hype, speculation, and news that has only short term relevance.

1 comments

I think you're right that we don't really understand yet the implications of this idea. For instance, it's not just expectation that should be emphasized, it's the discount rate at which the present value is performed. Conditional on the expected value of the earnings over the future, one can calculate the implied discount rate given a company's price (equity risk premium). When this value is higher, the market is effectively more present-oriented, they care less about future cash flows. And vice-versa. Would the equity risk premium fall under this type of market? Would that mean lower equity prices? I don't know.