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by jerf 5810 days ago
Make plans for when the Chinese bubble pops. I'm quite confident they are in one, but regardless of your own feelings on that topic you can't rationally put the probability of that at 0%. When it pops, I don't know what would happen and there is another non-0% (and IMHO significant) chance that it might not be pleasant to be a foreigner at the time, especially a Westerner. If something looks to be popping I would make sure I could get the hell out of there.
1 comments

I don't think they are in a bubble. Atleast not one that's going to pop. They have the advantage of developed and undeveloped markets. At the moment more of their money is going to fund internal investments since foreign investments have dried up. They have billions/trillions in soveriegn wealth funds so if they need capital they can break open a piggy bank.

Hopefully, if they've learned anything is overinvestment can be just as bad as underinvesting. If controlled properly they can coast on internal projects until the US and Europe exit their recessions. Then things can go back to business as usual.