[leakydropout]

The disasters that may befall us if we fail to narrow this gap are many. [...] Within prosperous countries, such as the United States, there is a distinct and growing threat that increased automation, coupled with an obsolete and aimless system of education, will lead to a restratification of society in which a large middle class may find itself without suitable employment and without adequate means of filling its leisure time enjoyably and constructively. -- Social Technology (1966).

The median of these final responses could then be taken as representing the nearest thing to a group consensus. In the case of the high-IQ machine, this median turned out to be the year 1990, with a final interquartile range from 1985 to 2000. The procedure thus caused the median to move to a much earlier date and the interquartile range to shrink considerably, presumably influenced by convincing arguments -- Analysis of the future: The Delphi Method. (1967)

[edanm]

I'm not sure what you think these quotes are suggesting. If it's that there are lots of predictions that AGI is close that haven't been borne out, you're obviously right, and in no way contradicting the article.

[leakydropout]

I just thought these quotes were interestingly contemporary, and could complement the article.

The article builds a convincing point for itself (at the cost of a huge complexity), it contains no discernible contradictions to me. It is reasonable to prepare for the possibility of a future event (say, AGI, or Jesus returning to earth), by thinking about it now.

All interests and future predictions are different, but equally valid. To me, it feels like the Wright Brothers thinking about rotating safety valves in space, before they have even took off on their first flight, but that should not stop the author and supporters in any way: Science, futurism, and philosophy moves in small steps, and it may be a good time for some to start walking. Just make sure to properly define the end goal (AKA, the moment AI becomes AGI), or we may keep on truckin' forever, never closing the loop of our hostile AGI-created simulations creating a first friendly AGI.