[mks]

It intrigues me that the experts and their market research told them it will fail. Did they just do a lousy research or was the idea too innovative? How is it possible to distinguish between those cases (bad research vs no one will buy it vs innovative idea people don't understand yet)?

[patrickk]

He also mentions that it took several years to really take off. If it was a product launched today, it would probably be killed if it took 3+ years to take off. Look at Hollywood movies judged by their opening weekend or the career of Alex Ferguson, who almost got fired early in his tenure at Manchester United, then went on to become one of the greatest managers in any sport, ever.

[mks]

Maybe the times are different now than in the past or the food industry works on different timescales before they kill off something. Possibly because the investment is much bigger than software - they mention building a whole new factory for an untested product - that made me shiver. I might be just spoilt by ease of pivoting in software, but what led them to believing into the new drink - were they acting just on a hunch and feeling it tasted good?

[patrickk]

> Possibly because the investment is much bigger than software - they mention building a whole new factory for an untested product - that made me shiver.

But if businesses are not willing to take on risks in the world of atoms/hardware, not just in the world of software, things stagnate. This is why the world of software moves so quickly and is much more exciting than the world of atoms in general. It's also why someone like Elon Musk is so remarkable - he is willing to take enormous risks in the world of atoms (Tesla, Solar City and especially SpaceX). Almost nobody is innovating like this in the western world at least, and of course Wall Street (or at least some parts) hate him for it. More examples of the lack of innovation in the world of atoms - sectors like construction have been really anti-innovation for a long time, at least until the proverbial wrecking ball in the form of software-powered bricklaying robots come along and disrupt everything. I was at a motor show recently, and I was struck by how unremarkable all the new models from the premium manufacturers are. A button that closes the boot lid automatically is not innovation, neither are interior panels that the customer can customise with their own design. Again, no wonder they are nervous about Tesla.

> but what led them to believing into the new drink - were they acting just on a hunch and feeling it tasted good?

Sometimes you just have to go with your gut. Focus groups and customer acceptance testing won't give you a full picture. There's a reason why by 'design by committee' and 'analysis paralysis' are considered negatives, not positives. 1970s Ireland was a totally different business climate to the quarter to quarter, Wall-Street driven thinking today which kills any long term horizons for taking on new ideas or projects. Having a clubby business environment where "everyone knew everyone" probably allowed for more breathing space to run with a new idea.