[barry-cotter]

> Re: HK, China agreed to allow HK people to vote for the leaders by 2017 in return for sovereignty, and did not fulfill this promise, therefore there is no reason to recognize their sovereignty.

Sure there is, short of nuclear war there’s no way to get the PRC’s government out of Hong Kong.

And the PRC signed a treaty with the U.K., and the U.K.’s signature on a treaty is dirt. They guaranteed the indivisibility and independence of Cyprus and did nothing when the Greeks invaded, they guaranteed Ukraine’s borders along with Russia and the USA. Two things are always true in international relations; never give up your nukes and never trust the U.K. or USA.

[vetinari]

> They guaranteed the indivisibility and independence of Cyprus and did nothing when the Greeks invaded,

Turks, not Greeks

> they guaranteed Ukraine’s borders along with Russia and the USA

The Ukraine situation has much more nuance than you give credit for.

> and never trust the U.K. or USA.

As history shows, every superpower has interests, not friends.

[barry-cotter]

You’re right, the Turks invaded before the Greeks managed to do so. I suppose the U.K. might have been the closest to sincere of the signatories to the Treaty of Guarantee. Let it be noted that the Turkish invasion was a response to a Greek government backed coup of the Cypriot government.

Fuck nuance. Never give up your nukes and never trust anyone for your vital interests.

[vetinari]

See? Even Cyprus has nuance :)

The nukes in Ukraine were not Ukrainian - they were Soviet. Ukraine had no knowledge and resources to maintain them in usable state, they would simply expire anyway. So at least someone made a quick buck on that. This episode actually sums up behaviour of Ukraine's politicians in their 25 years of existence - whatever can be sold, will be sold, consequences for your co-citizens be damned. Ukraine as a state has no interests, vital or not - only politicians have.

On the other hand, do you wonder why North Korea wants nukes?

[barry-cotter]

I don’t know whether Ukraine or Kazakhstan was the second largest of the Soviet republics but I would be very, very surprised if given their population they could not have at minimum cannibalised the Soviet nukes to build a domestic Ukrainian deterrent.

I don’t wonder why North Korea wants nukes. I know why. Iraq, Libya, Iran. Compare and contrast.

[nailer]

> Sure there is, short of nuclear war there’s no way to get the PRC’s government out of Hong Kong.

It's entirely possible PRC could collapse. High growth rates and widespread corruption could easily cause a financial crisis that turns into a political one.