Yeah, when you see that uTorrent is still popular[1][2], after their introduction of ads 5 years ago and the removal of important features like streaming, in a population that know how to torrent. Doubtless VLC with ads will still have an important market share for at least 10 years.
Yes, and a lot of them will continue to use it, even if VLC introduces ads, because it's what they are familiar with. I am making the same point as you — I think.