[cromwellian]

Will it really be enforceable though? It seems relatively easy for firms in China to change names, create shells, etc

If China can't effectively police their own fly-by-night domestic firms from doing by things like selling industrial salts as fake table salt, how likely is it they'll be able to shut down NK oriented firms, or even be aggressively inclined to investigate and enforce this order? That is, perhaps this is mostly for show to comply on paper with UN resolutions.

[girzel]

The enforcement of regulations in China is frighteningly efficient and effective, while the issue at hand is foremost in the minds of leaders. The government insists on retaining personal control over the country, and weakens the country's autonomous systems, which means it must spend some of a limited amount of attention to address any given issue. The moment the Eye of Sauron turns to look at a particular problem, everything immediately falls into order. The moment it turns away to something else, everyone gets up to their old shenanigans. It's the trade-off of retaining personal control.

In this case, these NK firms will certainly be a topic of focus, and likely remain so for quite a while.

[nrp]

On getting back to their old shenanigans, this is such a deeply rooted concept in China that it inspired a phrase that has remained in common use for 700 years. "Heaven is high and the emperor is far away" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tian_gao,_Huangdi_yuan

[SimbaOnSteroids]

This concept was also expressed in that Whitey Bulgar movie, Black Mass.

>Remember Johnny, if no one sees it, its like it never even happened.

[adamnemecek]

I feel like China is really starting to feel the pain of being associated with NK. I can imagine that they will be pretty thorough on this.

[athenot]

China just wants peace in the area. It's not at all in their interest to see a conflict right next door to them.

At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict.

[MBCook]

Not just a war, a massive humanitarian crisis. If the NK government were to disappear how many needy people would flood over their border and cause massive resource issues?

It’s a weird situation where basically everyone hates NK (I imagine China would be more happy if that was just more of their normal territory) but everyone is terrified of what happens when the NK State dissolves.

SK wants to reunite but that would have to be done slowly to avoid the same issues China is afraid of (ignoring any ‘diehards’ causing terrorism or just unrest).

[devdoomari]

'humanitarian crisis' - isn't NK already the very example of 'humanitarian crisis'? just that NK gov. is good at 'containing' its people & let then starve...

[stordoff]

It's currently a humanitarian crisis that China don't have to (and to a large extent can't) deal with.

[MBCook]

Right. It’s a disaster but it’s contained. As soon as the government can’t enforce it’s borders (there are some leaks now but it’s not open) then it’s going to become a huge issue in China and SK and anywhere else people can get to.

Of course China and SK could arm up at the borders and start shooting people but... that’s not really an improvement is it.

[Grazester]

Conflict in North Korea would lead to a humanitarian crisis for China and South Korea to deal with. I dont think either would want to deal with that

[jcranberry]

They want peace, but they also don't want a US military base on their borders. They're clearly trying to balance the two.

[adamnemecek]

> At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict.

I don't think so. I think they would actually just let NK be nuked and maybe try to capture it afterwards.

[vadman]

The Pyongyang wind rose indicates that a lot of the fallout will be carried N, NW, and W -- i.e. to the Chinese territory. I doubt they would welcome nuking so close to their borders.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?FMM=1&FYY=2...

This leaves aside the question of how real these sanctions are, and how much China will keep helping NK behind the scenes.

[mercer]

That's something I hadn't considered, but it strikes me as the most reasonable approach, and (I might be entirely off on this one!) one befitting a culture that really understands the concept of honor/'saving face'.

[sparkzilla]

Expect the nukes to fall when the north wind doth blow

[vadman]

To carry the fallout onto South Korea, and the US militry stationed there? Brilliant!