[xir78]

It seems like KJU needs an enemy to stay in power to justify his rule, so he can’t back down on his nuclear program. But now the options are narrowing even more for him, and if he abdicated it doesn’t have anywhere to go. So he may just force a war...

[MBCook]

In any war he’d be destroyed.

NK has to balance on the knife edge between being threatening enough to get concessions but not so much other countries give up and ignore them (or level them).

KJU doesn’t seem to know how to walk that line, and didn’t have enough time to learn it from his father.

I’d say ‘we’re getting close to the end’ but no one who has ever made that prediction has been right. It’s too unique (especially with Trump now) to be able to get a good guess.

[ihsw2]

War? Please describe a scenario where Seoul doesn't get obliterated in the first 30 minutes of fireworks starting.

If the DPRK doesn't achieve victory within 72 hours then yes of course they will be flattened, but nonetheless a DPRK victory is within the realm of possibility. Seoul may be reduced to a smoking heap, 20M dead and 10M having emigrated, and it will be a Pyrrhic victory, but it could be a victory nonetheless.

[dingaling]

Most North Korean artillery can't reach beyond the northern suburbs of Seoul.

It would cause mass casualties but by no means would the metropolis be 'obliterated'. There certainly wouldn't be 20 million dead unless everyone within the Greater Seoul area rushed north and threw themselves into the beaten-zone.

Assuming, of course, that the artillery troops follow their orders to fire.

[pdelbarba]

I have a hard time believing that the artillery would ever get the chance. There's maybe ten square miles where they could place artillery to successfully bombard Seoul. The entire area could easily be destroyed or remotely turned into a minefield by a cruise missile salvo or judicious application of artillery fire from a handful of batteries. I can't imagine there aren't plans in place to handle this concern very rapidly should tensions rise to that point.

Even assuming that there isn't a concentrated effort to destroy these emplacements quickly, it seems the amount of damage they could cause would be fairly limited by operational constraints[1]

[1] http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/could-north-korea-...

[ckozlowski]

There are plans, yes. Lots of artillery, but it's aging, and as was pointed out earlier, the number of pieces they possess that can actually reach Seoul (the 203mm Koksan) is not very great.

As soon as they open fire, the counter-battery game begins. You can be sure the allies have photographed and analyzed every strip of dirt along the DMZ, looking for prepared positions so they can anticipate where the guns are and where they'd move to after a salvo. They'd be tracking the rounds as they come in and plotting where it originated from. 72 hours is a good estimate for how long that artillery battle would last; same estimate I've seen elsewhere.

But the concern of casualties are not necessarily from shells impacting, but the panic and disruption in order that comes from it. NK can cause enormous hardship just by flinging a few shells. They can hide many of their batteries and string out the battle by revealing pieces on day 3, 4, etc,. Even if they get destroyed, and even if they only get a few shells off, you'll have a news report saying shells are still falling on Seoul, and it will be a tremendous morale hit.

But the window is closing on how well the NK artillery will continue to be a credible threat, hence the rush for nuclear weapons.

[myrandomcomment]

There would be no day 3 or 4. The US knowns in detail every inch of the DMZ and the NK side. The US counter-battery is the best in the world. Every NK gun that fires would be bracket and destroyed in the 1st 30 minutes. After they are gone any other mapped location would be hit for good measure. The ROK Army and the US Army would start to roll right over the DMZ in the 1st hour. The Air Force and Army attack helicopters would wreck any armor the NK have very very quickly. The NK Army around the DMZ will collapse in the 1st day.

The only real issue we would have to worry about is NK using a nuke on Seoul or Tokyo. That is the major issue and it is why NK will never give up on their weapons. It is the only effect threat they have.

The US planners have sorted out the conventional war issues a long time ago. It is figuring out how to be 100% sure to remove the Nukes from the equation that has stopped us from just stepping on Kim like a roach and he knows that. That is the reason for the Nukes.

[csomar]

Unless they throw nuclear/hydrogen bombs at Seoul. Then, no. You are over-estimating the power of artillery. At best, they can destroy some buildings, stop infrastructure from functioning for some time and kill people in the "thousands".

They can win as in they can get control of Seoul in the first 72hours. But then they are left with two choices: Backdown, or burn the city.

They can act fast because they have a geographical advantage. But that's about it. They win for 72hours and lose forever.

[ourmandave]

If it's a conventional war and China has his back there's no guarantee he'd be overthrown or even killed. Assad is alive and well after all these years.

That said, nobody wants a land war in Asia (one of the Classic Blunders) so it would take a lot of stupidity to get there.

[bwilliams18]

He'd be destroyed for sure, but he'd do a lot of damage as he goes. If he feels backed into a corner, why wouldn't he just take as many people with him as possible?

[dforrestwilson]

Smart thing for China to do would be to offer him a cushy life in exile within China and replace.

[scriptkiddy]

Agreed.

Sadly, for the sake of the world, we need to let KJU go unpunished.

Let him live out his days in a cushy mansion in China so that he doesn't start lobbing nukes everywhere.

I believe that to be the sanest course of action.

[pluma]

And how would that work out exactly? What would his party do if he tried to pack up and leave? What would his military do? He has their support because he's an important figurehead (by virtue of his bloodline alone) and acts within the interests of those holding him in power.

If KJU tried to "go rogue" (especially if it meant betraying his own country) he'd be dead within a heartbeat. Accidents happen.

[MBCook]

Or the government would fall and you’d end up with the humanitarian issues and possibly groups fighting over nuclear weapons.

[mercer]

I'm curious... what would prevent him from something like plastic surgery and fleeing before things get too bad?

I'm just thinking that if I was a remotely rational dictator in his position, that's what I'd do right before 'showing them' and sending off a nuke or two that would probably/possibly lead to the obliteration of my own people.

[crdoconnor]

>It seems like KJU needs an enemy to stay in power to justify his rule, so he can’t back down on his nuclear program.

The US with Trump at the helm seems perfectly happy to play the evil villain for him, throwing out telegenic threats of nuclear annihilation.

If Libya and Iraq prove anything it's not having a nuke program that's actually the greater risk, coz they'll just accuse you having one anyway...

>So he may just force a war

There's no point in doing that.

[MBCook]

That assumes he knows how close to the line he can get without it actually causing the war. He may not.

[agumonkey]

Trump populism seems rooted in the same goal. He needs to find something to grab the spotlight in a "positive" manner somehow.