[Saad_M]

Another alternative is that you may get a Galapagos island effect where Chinese firms do innovate, but their innovation is tied to the cultural and regulatory norms and not very applicable outside of China. The same effect was seen with Japanese cell phone companies pre-smartphone era.

[diminish]

If Chinese start an economic and cultural expansion which includes PRing their culture, movies, tech, products and building special relationships with developing world in Asia, Africa, south American and Europe they may end up being the globalization leader.

[chaostheory]

As someone who is sometimes forced to watch media from the mainland due to family, unless censorship is relaxed - this isn't going to happen.

Creativity is inhibited when you have the cost of wondering whether what you've written or what you'll say will land you in jail. This problem is multiplied 1000x if you work in anything related to media or art. Consequently mainland entertainment will always be safe and boring. It's not going to see success like say South Korean or Japanese media industries

It's super obvious that the state of the mainland China entertainment industry is so terrible when you have most Chinese pirating foreign media

[AmIFirstToThink]

No innovation in entertainment means culture safety means prolonged rule of the party.

You are just confirming their logic.

[nikdaheratik]

This is just silly. If the local entertainment isn't very good, then people will find something better that isn't controlled by the Chinese government or shaped the rest of the Chinese culture, which is how you get Western values along with Hollywood movies. And you also get a culture that ignores censorship laws, because they are stupid, which can lead to ignoring other laws that are stupid.

I'm not saying pirated Marvel movies are going to bring down the PRC, but there's no reason to think that bad Chinese movies that no one wants to watch will help the party, either.

[jacquesm]

That is going to be tough. A whole generation of Chinese see the west as cool and to be emulated. I have a hard time seeing a whole generation of Europeans and Americans wanting to emulate the Chinese, Japan, maybe. China, not so much.

[TeMPOraL]

As an European of almost 30, I used to feel America is cool, but I got pretty disillusioned over the last 10-15 years. I can tell the same about many people I know too.

US is no longer a country to be emulated. It's a country to fear (for what they can, and do, to other countries) and a country to pity (for what it does to its own citizens).

China, OTOH, looks more and more cool now. A lot of things that made them seem evil turned out to be exaggerations and propaganda, and while their politics still wouldn't make me feel safe starting a business there, they seem to be the only country on the planet that seems to think and execute long-term. It's something the West is no longer able to do.

Hell, the Chinese currently seem to be the only nation on the planet who seriously care about fixing the climate issues.

China has a great opportunity now to win plenty of foreign mind share. I wonder if they'll go for it, and if we start seeing more pro-Chinese propaganda.

[emiliobumachar]

You called China "the only country on the planet that seems to think and execute long-term". I agree with that. That gives them a huge advantage.

The issue about repression stifling creativity is orthogonal to that (unless to the extent repression might be necessary for long-term-ness), and gives them a huge disadvantage.

Which huge thing is huger is anyone's guess. They look to be winning so far. (What could really derail them is a bad leader, Mao-style. Checks and balances would be to avoid that. But that's a different topic altogether)

[jacquesm]

> A lot of things that made them seem evil turned out to be exaggerations and propaganda

Such as?

[TeMPOraL]

People living in fear. Strong and full censorship for political reasons (it turned out neither strong not being done for political reasons, but rather economical ones). Population control through forced abortions and murders everywhere (it turned out to be not true). Evil communist leaders. Shit-quality manufacturing (that's the fault of western companies; China manufactures to the specs you give and pay for, it's western companies that decide to cheap out on products). Those are all things I've been led to believe through media reports.

The point being, whatever happened there 40 or 60 years ago, currently China is not that much different from the US, and unlike the latter, it's only getting better.

[p-funk]

>Shit-quality manufacturing (that's the fault of western companies; China manufactures to the specs you give and pay for, it's western companies that decide to cheap out on products)

Many times, US companies take Chinese products "off the shelf" and slap their brand on it, based on a spec that the Chinese company themselves came up with on their own. Most manufacturers have catalogs for you to browse, and many are quite reluctant to modify their designs with your own specifications, although this depends on the company. So I would disagree that it's western companies cutting corners. Typically the manufacturers cut cost to increase their own margins, regardless of what spec you give them.

[jacquesm]

> People living in fear.

In the former Eastblock people weren't living in fear either, as long as they did not think of sticking their heads up too far above the field in terms of political activism and such. If you did then you were pretty sure to be targeted.

China today is still very repressive when it comes to political freedom.

https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2017/china

And as long as they are 'one party rule' I think that it is both strong and for political reasons. Keep in mind that all of politics is ultimately rooted in economy so it is pretty easy to get lost in the mix.

> Population control through forced abortions and murders everywhere (it turned out to be not true).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy

It very much turned out to be true, and you can add a very large number of forced sterilizations to that list.

> Evil communist leaders.

That's an opinion, I'm not going to argue with opinions.

> Shit-quality manufacturing (that's the fault of western companies; China manufactures to the specs you give and pay for, it's western companies that decide to cheap out on products).

This is false. China can make quality products but there is also a culture of substitution where quality samples are replaced with lower grade manufacture at later points in a contract to deliver. This has bitten many Western companies that turned to China for their manufacturing and which has caused a lot of companies to bring their quality control to China, just before shipping to save on the amount of stuff shipped that simply did not work or did not work as advertised. This QA issue has been very well documented and can definitely not be laid at the door of the Western companies placing their orders in good faith.

> Those are all things I've been led to believe through media reports.

Media mostly reports, it mostly does not make stuff up. And most of those media reports are backed by at least my personal experience over the years where I will be more than happy to note that this stuff isn't a constant but that there are trends with some stuff improving and other things worsening. If you know your stuff it is very well possible to manufacture quality goods in China.

> The point being, whatever happened there 40 or 60 years ago, currently China is not that much different from the US

That is hilarious in so many ways. China is extremely different from the US along almost any axis that you care to name. Other than that of course the Chinese are people, just like Americans and Europeans but that's about it.

> and unlike the latter, it's only getting better.

This may very well be true, but then again, that's a function of where they were only a few decades ago. It's hard to remain at the top of something if there are other parties that wish to ascend, in dutch we have a proverb that reads 'standing still is going backwards' (I'm not sure how well that translates), but it fairly accurately sums up the sentiment.

[seppin]

> As an European of almost 30, I used to feel America is cool, but I got pretty disillusioned over the last 10-15 years.

You never thought the US was cool, but you watch their TV/movies, buy their clothes, use their tech, browse their websites for intellectual debate (hei HN) and use every other spare second to shit on the country and claim you hate it.

So pretty much like most Europeans. But the influence the US has on your life isn't going anywhere.

[arethuza]

My 18 year old son has been looking at studying for a year abroad during his UK university course - the countries he is most interested in: Korea and Japan, he's least interested in the US.

[vetinari]

> I have a hard time seeing a whole generation of Europeans and Americans wanting to emulate the Chinese, Japan, maybe. China, not so much.

That's more position of ignorance, and thankfully it is changing.

Even Eastern Europe had a problem with such an attitude. There used to be a saying: "Americans are not going to buy Skoda, Chinese will". And indeed, Chinese do.

[natural219]

Speaking as a young Western person, you are severely out of touch on this point.

[jacquesm]

Name 5 present day Chinese writers, pop stars and movie icons without referring to the web or using google. Then name 5 present day American writers, pop stars and movie icons.

[AmIFirstToThink]

And that's supposed to offend them? how?

What makes you think Chinese are after making others follow them? I think they are pretty happy with the way things are now.

Do you think that's what we are after? Making others emulate us? That sounds racist to me.

[JamesBarney]

The poster he's responding to says that China can become a or the global cultural leader of the world.

And to achieve this specific status they do need others to follow them culturally. If no one outside of China is wearing Chinese clothes, watching Chinese movies, or listening to Chinese music, then they can't be considered a cultural globalization leader.

[seppin]

or, given the network effort of English as the global language of tourism, science, etc. the would need to create billions of new Chinese speakers. Give how different and difficult it is, I really don't see that happening.

[nikdaheratik]

The choice for China is to either be an insulated and isolated country with little exposure to the rest of the world, or to reach out and contribute in the conversation. I think we're already decades past the point where they can close themselves off, but if they want their own people to appreciate their culture, they have to be just as innovative as the rest of the world. Otherwise, people will stop listening and believing in what the party has to say.

[s4vi0r]

Nobody is ever "pretty happy with the way things are" in the context of a country or company.

It is absolutely in China's best interest to promote their culture abroad, and they absolutely do spend tons of money doing it. Also, I'm not sure you know what racism is.

[eksemplar]

Especially if America keeps electing republicans.

As an European America is shitting on me a lot more than China is.

[chriscappuccio]

I believe the problem is actually that you keep soiling yourself.

[StreamBright]

This is so simple. I did not know.

[bluetwo]

An argument could be made that this is why their large investments in movies and entertainment has failed outside the homeland.

[andrioni]

Although China has such a large market (and potential to close the market if need be) that not being able to expand outside of China won't be a problem for a long time.

[dv_dt]

But the effect was the complete opposite with Japanese car companies, which ended up being in massive competition with the US industry. (with ups and downs on both sides)

[nradov]

After the initial round of product launches, most Japanese car companies started designing unique products for the US market. Many of the most popular "Japanese" cars in the US were designed and assembled in the US, and aren't even available for purchase in Japan. There are a few exceptions like the Prius, but overall the "Galapagos Island effect" is a good metaphor. It's a very isolated and unique market.

[dv_dt]

It's speculative how much of the Japanese company design/assemble in the US is from trying to serve the market more closely, and how much is from trying to align with current or potential US trade restrictions. I think one might argue that there is a similarity of motivation in the US preserving auto industry capability in-nation with China wanting to develop tech capability in-nation. The motivation is similar, but the implementation is different.

I do agree there could be a "Galapogos Island" effect, I just don't know how to predict which industry will experience it vs the opposite. I wonder if someday the US will be the Galapagos in that relation though with the sheer size of China and it's possibility to trade with near neighbours India and Indonesia.

[nradov]

In terms of consumer preferences, the US and Chinese auto markets are actually pretty similar right now. Chinese buyers seem to want most of the same things as US buyers. Of course they're not exactly the same but more alike than Japan, Europe, Africa, or South America. Australia is also fairly similar to China and the US.

It's hard to predict the impact of potential trade restrictions and electrification requirements. The big multinational auto makers are pushing hard to harmonize rules around the globe, but populists and nationalists are pushing back.

[TylerE]

I'd say it's more like the US market of 20 or 30 years ago. They sell lots of Buicks.

[nradov]

I was referring to general vehicle size and configuration preferences, not specific brands.

[nihonde]

The same is true in the other direction: Japanese domestic auto sales heavily favor models that you can’t buy in the US. Toyota has Crown dealerships that boast about selling JDM-only models.

[akvadrako]

And leading in many other industries too, like robotics and video games.