Ask HN: Avoid moving to LA/SF due to earthquake risk?

[semi-nontechncl]

I'm considering moving back to LA after a one year hiatus. However, after the recent earthquakes in Mexico, I started researching the probability of a major earthquake striking the LA area and the predictions are not reassuring.

For Southern CA, here are the stats for the next 30 years: Magnitude 6.7 - 97% Magnitude 7.0 - 82% Magnitude 7.5 - 37% Magnitude 8.0 - 03%

For the SF region, here are the stats for the next 30 years: Magnitude 6.7 - 93% Magnitude 7.0 - 68% Magnitude 7.5 - 15% Magnitude 8.0 - 02%

For reference, the 1994 Northridge earthquake was magnitude 6.7. Also, the Fort Tejon earthquake in 1857 in SoCal was magnitude 7.9.

I work in the film industry, so LA is the ideal place for me to live, but I could probably find work in NYC. I'm leaning towards not returning to LA due to the earthquake risk, but I'm wondering if I'm being irrational. Any thoughts on how to weigh odds that involve life/death?

Source: https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3027/fs2008-3027.pdf

[_ao789]

We're moving our business to Portugal in the new year, Lisbon has a great tech scene.... there are other places for film other than LA, particularly without natural disasters. I'm sure others will provide more measurable experience in their comments to follow.

[Piskvorrr]

Lisbon, hmmm...I do recall a 9.0 magnitude earthquake there literally altering the course of history ;) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1755_Lisbon_earthquake

[_ao789]

haha, that was literally 262 years ago. Much less common than the frequency California seems to have of these things.

[semi-nontechncl]

I guess Lisbon is off my list...

[semi-nontechncl]

I keep hearing that Lisbon is a great place to move to! Where are you moving from and what made you decide to move your business to Portugal?

[_ao789]

We're based in London, UK; where we started https://analytics.statvoo.com . Lisbon has a fantastic startup scene and there is a lot of money being pumped into the economy to create something really great. It has a very nice climate, friendly people and is the only other place in the world that has a Golden Gate Bridge. London, like Silicon Valley is extremely expensive and I'm not convinced you get any value or benefit from being in it. Lisbon is definitely where it will shortly be at.

[semi-nontechncl]

Sounds like a great move. Have fun in Portugal and good luck!

[mch82]

Have you looked at the chances of modern construction surviving these quakes?

[semi-nontechncl]

This is a good point. Because the rents are so high in LA, I generally end up living in older apartment complexes. But here's a cool resource for seeing when buildings in LA were built http://cityhubla.github.io/LA_Building_Age/#12/34.0532/-118....