[Alex3917]

There is something like a 90% chance of getting a cap-and-trade system passed within the next two months. McCain-Warner is going up for vote in a couple of months, and if it passes then Bush is going to be under a lot of pressure to sign it since A) McCain is the Republican nominee and B) both Obama and Cinton have their own versions of a cap-and-trade system. This bill isn't perfect, but it's a pretty good start toward fixing the problem. If it doesn't get passed in two months then almost certainly it will in another year, or failing that, Obama's bill will.

It's gotten to the point where even many of the major industrial companies in the US support a cap-and-trade system. Risk costs serious money for entrepreneurs. When taking out a loan on these billion-dollar power plants their weighted average cost of capital goes up a lot since they know there are going to be new rules in place but they don't know what the rules will be. It's actually better for these companies to get the rules in place ASAP because their cost of capital goes down so they get a much better return on their investments. That's partially why Duke and Alcoa and Caterpillar and Dupont and all these companies are lobbying for cap-and-trade.

I think we are going to see more progress on this issue than anyone can possibly imagine within the next couple of years. Once a cap-and-trade system is put in place, expect solar photovoltaic to achieve price parity with coal within 24 months.