[solaris_7]

If this shift takes place - what would be the best 10 year investment strategy be? Long electric utilities, renewable generation, charging networks, smart grid companies & lithium miners. Short oil companies, petrodollar denominated govt. bonds & gas station networks.

Is there a "massive shift to electric cars within 10 years" ETF I can buy?

[lettergram]

Still buy gas, it's not like we're going to suddenly produce clean energy. All that's going to happen is we are going to build more power plants to support charging cars...

With the push for less nuclear, and less coal, all that's left is oil and natural gas. Renewable energy is no where near where it's necessary. So invest in companies that build windmills, solar, etc. But also natural gaz power plants.

Really the best investments are construction companies, and companies that manage and build the power grid infrastructure.

[zamalek]

> build more power plants to support charging cars...

The bigger and engine is, the more efficient it typically is. Electric cars are already more clean even when you factor in the filthiest of power plants.

[seanmcdirmid]

Push for less nuclear? Where? Germany, Japan?

Anyways, electric cars are made for renewables (sans hydro) and nuclear that provide energy when it might not be needed but can be used for charging batteries instead. Gas will fill in the gaps, but it's on demand nature means it doesn't really become more useful like the other sources do with car electrification.

[drdrey]

France too. Public perception is against it, but so are the economics (nuclear is expensive to produce and decommission)

[seanmcdirmid]

France is way ahead on nuclear, getting most of their energy from it (90%). What are they going to replace it with?

[epistasis]

Only time will tell, but right now I would bet on wind, solar, storage, imports, exports, etc. Eventually those existing reactors are going to age and need to be decommissioned, the median age is now more than 30 years old. Every year, construction of the EPR design is proving to be more and more expensive than they thought.

Of course, if somebody in the Western world can figure out how to build a nuclear reactor on time with a competitive budget, nuclear may enter that mix of new construction. But right now, with the past decades' trends, it is not looking good for nuclear.

[seanmcdirmid]

So is this something you are saying about France or something France has said itself. Last time I checked, France was still pretty dedicated to nuclear, unlike Germany....which gets a lot of exported nuclear power from France.

[olivermarks]

Good paywalled piece on FT about the hedge/shift to LNG by the big petroleum players 'Big Oil bets on a dash for gas' https://www.ft.com/content/f23e35e0-92b5-11e7-bdfa-eda243196...

LNG is a big electricity creation fuel, escaping methane is the big pollution challenge.

[_5ysi]

Companies well position for high voltage DC. Possible solar technologies. Traditional car manufacturers who look poised to survive the electric/autonomous transition, which will likely reduce demand and cause some bankruptcies and consolidation in the auto industry. I am particularly partial toward Japanese car companies and Tesla for being survivors. Old giants like General Electric still build a lot of our grid infrastructure.

Petro companies will still do well though; we still need plastics, jet fuel, industrial chemicals, and even still gasoline, as it will be a byproduct of these other products. Lower demand for diesel and gasoline in cars could benefit transoceanic shipping and airline companies.

The "problem" with looking for good investments is that electric vehicles are fundamentally about conserving energy and materials, so after the electric car revolution there is going to be less economic activity than before.

[Someone]

Invest in companies doing road maintenance.

Electric cars are heavier, and will cause more wear and tear on roads.

[Fjolsvith]

I would think not. Is a Tesla heavier than a comparable sized ICE vehicle?

[Someone]

A Tesla model S has 476 or 544kg of batteries, depending on battery capacity.

A typical engine of a comparable car weighs ballpark that in pounds (http://www.team.net/sol/tech/engine.html; links to better data welcome)

You have to add the weight of petrol to that (let's say 80 liters or 60kg). That's partly compensated by the weight of the electrical engine (70 pounds = 30kg) that you have to add to the Tesla.

=> all else being equal, the Tesla will be heavier.

However, 'All else being equal' currently is a bit debatable, I think. Tesla seems to have optimized further for weight than conventional manufacturers do.

[Fjolsvith]

Okay, so I have a 1997 Cadillac Seville. It has a curb weight of 3848 lbs. [1]

The new Tesla Model 3 (with long range battery) has a curb weight of 3,814 lbs. [2]

Whats the big deal here?

1. http://www.whatiscurbweight.com/vehicle-weight/cadillac_curb...

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3

[gozur88]

I would think every aspect of the battery supply chain would be worth looking at.