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by BeniBoy
3209 days ago
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This is the classic "false positive paradox"[1]. Commonly present in medical testing. Even if false positive rate is very low, if the positive value is very low too, the likelihood of being victim of false can be high. The exemple in the wikipedia page are very good. I had to explain that to a friend which had tested positive on the HIV test and was waiting for confirmation over the weekend. Not easy to talk math when such things happens.. I found it very troubling that doctors don't even mention that to patient and present tests as 95% effective. (In fact she was fine) [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_positive_paradox |
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