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by BenoitEssiambre 3209 days ago
This is full of misunderstandings about monetary policy.

Currencies that are not designed to lose value over time can not be stable. Intrinsically worthless tokens engineered to have better than market risk adjusted, liquidity adjusted, real returns compared to real productive investment will always be unstable and fluctuate increasingly wildly as they get more popular. This is a result of physical limits of production. As people hoard worthless tokens, their price increases which causes more people to hoard them instead of investing in real businesses with real production capacity.

This eventually causes production capacity to drop. That's right, when enough people do it, token hoarding displaces investment in businesses and factories and lowers global production capacity. This means token hoarding causes a future drop in things available to buy with these tokens.

Eventually there will be people who want to buy real things with their stock of tokens. The tokens will be chasing fewer goods which means prices for stuff will rise (tokens will lose value). This might happen suddenly when people with large stockpiles of tokens notice that value is dropping and that there are tons of other tokens waiting on the sideline to make it drop even further. Hoarders might rush to get rid of their stockpile all at the same time before they're worthless which will cause their fall to worthlessness. This drop will bring the tokens closer to their natural intrinsic value of zero. The cycle can then start again, such is aggregate economics.

The 1920s and 1930s suffered from this type of production drop but with gold tied currencies instead of cryptocoins. It happened to a lesser extent in 2007 when western world central banks failed to keep inflation rates high enough.

It's important for the world's sake to not let deflationary currencies become too popular. When savings or financial promises are insufficiently tied to future production or to accumulation of real goods, there will be disappointment when many people try to exchange them for real stuff. That is true for crypto currencies as well as government currencies (that is why the system is designed to make banks invest people's money in real businesses and minimize the proportion of money that is stockpiled idly).

It's true that crypto currencies are currently not widely held enough to significantly affect the aggregate economy but speculation already keeps them volatile and the knowledge that as they get more popular, there will be more macroeconomic pressures towards volatility keeps the speculation wild and cryptocoins unstable.

1 comments

If I understand this right, I don't think I necessarily disagree with you. My question is: if people can choose one or the other to spend, what do you think they'll choose? A currency that inflates quickly, or one that inflates less quickly?
I think market forces will make it so that the one that inflates less quickly will be more volatile and the higher risk premium of holding it will make it often less attractive than the one that inflates more quickly but often it also will be the opposite.

Like most investments there will be a trade-off of risks vs returns but both currencies will in the long run, be poor investments compared to income generating assets tied to real production.

This is certainly interesting. Could the same principle be applied to gold which has been fairly stable?

I don't think gold is the right medium for the singularity because it is not easy to obtain and subdivide. It needs to be in the the vicinity of choosing the inflated coin on one hand, and the more valuable coin on the right.

Perhaps it's this trait that will keep Bitcoin volatile? Because it's easy to go in and out of it, volatility will remain high?

Yes it's similar to gold. Gold has some intrinsic value which anchors its price and reduces volatility and as you mentioned it is not as easy to trade which reduces speculation. But even gold is still a fairly volatile investment.
Yes, it may feel volatile, but how volatile is it compared to other currencies? For example, my country's currency fell 10% in the last three months.

Intrinsic value discussion aside (which is its own discussion worth having), I would certainly like to keep more of my money in gold vs my local currency if gold were easy to get and keep. Peter Schiff says goldmoney.com does this, but I'm not interested in owning a certificate.

You bring up a good point though. The closer I imagine ourselves being at the event horizon, the fuzzier the details become. For example, I don't know what "stable enough" is exactly. I guess the question is now, will it ever get close enough to go past the event horizon?

The crucial thing is that as you get near this "event horizon" you get close to a point where cryptocurrencies would be macroeconomically destabilizing in the same way gold tied currencies were destabilizing in 1929.

I don't think crypto-currencies will ever get that popular though. It would require governments to be on board and foolishly march towards the 1929 thing again. But you never know, as they say, history rhymes.