[hxta98596]

Bitcoin appears to be turning into a relatively standard commodity arbitrage market (in the real world sense of arbitrage not the academic sense). The article is right to compare to gold in this sense.

People seem to get caught up on the word "value" and then rush to defend Bitcoin's use cases and unique technology as making it valuable. I don't think it's a diss when people say Bitcoin has no fundamental value. A thing having use cases or unique properties is not what "value" means in an exchange market sense. "Fundamental value" is also known as "intrinsic value" and is based on the BUILT IN return potential of an asset. So stocks and bonds have an intrinsic value because they generate a return, based on dividends or interests rates they pay.

A thing is only worth what someone will give you for it. So EVERY value needs to be in terms of something else.

An ounce of Gold, 1 bitcoin, 1 US dollar, have NO intrinsic value because you can hold them forever and they will never pay you a dividend or make a coupon payment on their own. Gold has a few practical uses in jewelry and industry but that's not why it's important. Bitcoin and the dollar have ZERO "value" beyond being a place to store something else's value. Well back in the day a dollar in the bank might earn you a small interest rate but hello 21st century. Bitcoin doesn't even offer an interest rate. Gold is not a good long term investment. But Gold is good to have in case of emergency. I imagine bitcoin will be similar. Bitcoin and gold COST you money to own them. The people who make money off gold are the miners and then forever after the banks and security companies who store physical gold for you at great expense. Bitcoin should be similar in this sense as Bitcoin can create a spread income over the energy costs and the transaction fees it generates every 10 minutes.

My guess is since 90% of the bitcoins that will ever be mined will be mined within the next 2-3 years. And there will be lost coins. So maybe 15 million coins will be around long term and that number will slowly shrink. The fees will start to be more important.

I don't think Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. Bitcoin has a ton of great uses and tech features. And most importantly it has signaling properties. While Bitcoin is unlikely to be the main digital currency people on a daily basis as the 1 MB limit does appear to cause issues. It would be very bad for all digital currencies if bitcoin went away.