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Multiple points to make: 1) AGI is closer than you think 2), long-term perspective, 3) they are not just classifying it as a threat and most do not want to halt AI research. 1. Many people who _are_ in the AI field have stated that most if not all of the pieces for AGI are probably there. We cannot say for sure that this will happen in the next X years, but there is enough evidence that it is a possibility in X years. I believe that x is less than 5 years. I think the likely way we will get there is by creating artificial virtual animals that have high bandwidth sensory and motor outputs, advanced neural networks, and develop diverse skills gradually in varied environments like young animals. Obviously until we actually see those types of systems performing generally, that is speculation. One of the common beliefs of myself and other 'AGI-believers' is in exponential growth of technology. That means that even though it may seem far away now, it could still be completed in a few years since exponential growth is much faster than linear. 2. Looking at the evolution of life, we have a progression of things like single celled-animals, multi-celled, reptiles, mammals, apes, humans. This occurred over millions of years. On that type of time scale, whether you believe we will achieve some type of general intelligence in 5 years or even 500, it is a relatively short time. Even in terms of just human history, those with my type of worldview believe this will develop relatively soon. This will be a new type of life (or tool). A higher and much more capable paradigm. Whether they care enough to have disputes with us or not, humans will only be relevant in the larger scheme so far as they can interface with these things. 3. What most of these people are saying is not "Oh no, AI is dangerous, better stop". Generally people who understand this well enough realize this is sort of a force of nature or evolution that cannot be stopped. What we can try to do, however, is try to guide the development to be more beneficial for us (at least at the beginning stages). We have to take it seriously because there are enough signs that we have the components to build it that we don't _know_ that it won't happen soon, and the consequences of an unfriendly or out-of-control AI are too serious. So the idea is, try to come up with some rules to handle this, and that is what governments are supposed to do. And also try to actively pursue friendly practical AI before someone who is less aware comes up with something we can't control. |