[berberous]

I think it's helpful to break this down:

1) Is AGI possible?

2) If it's possible and it occurs, could it be a serious threat?

3) When will AGI occur?

In my view, I think the answer to 1 and 2 are an obvious yes. As to 3, that's inherently unknowable, but that's were I think the experts like Ng are correct that the threat today (and for the foreseeable future) is overblown. But that's sort of what everyone said about NK's nuclear ambitions 30 years ago, which is why it's important to consider the implications early before it's too late to change course.