[pluma]

I'm not sure what the RILE score is but that chart is worthless if you want to understand party alignment.

Because Germany doesn't have a two party system, putting the parties on a simple one-dimensional chart doesn't tell you much.

For example, the Greens are one of the most "socially progressive" parties (think immigration, LGBT, gender theory, feminism) but their positions on social welfare / workers' rights are fairly conservative compared to The Left (which in turn is extremely "pro-worker" to the point of bordering on anti-capitalist but doesn't place as much emphasis on LGBT issues). The Left is also much more strongly anti-war. The Greens also (obviously) place a lot of importance on ecological issues and renewable energy (which in Germany always means anti-nuclear).

The CDU has indeed shifted towards the left under Merkel but the SPD has also previously shifted strongly towards the right under Schröder. In fact the left wing of the SPD split off (that's the WASG mentioned in the footnote) and joined the Left, leaving both major parties left and right of the center. The SPD's campaigning this time is a bit more "left populist" than usual but that seems to be almost entirely strategic (to steer protest voters away from the AfD by offering a "real alternative").

The FDP is generally considered the most "employer-friendly" party and has a history of leaning towards neoliberal ("privatise everything") but has recently marketed itself as more centrist libertarian.

I find it very odd to see both the FDP and CDU described as more conservative than the US Democrats, as well as seeing the FDP described as more conservative than the CDU.

The CDU is probably most tolerant of getting involved in wars and only the Left and Greens take a strong stance against weapons exports but none of them are anywhere near as militarist as the US Democrats (or Republicans). None of the parties could honestly be described as "tough on crime" either. If anything the CDU can be defined as generally being strongly in favour of the status quo.

If Merkel loses (which most likely also means she'll leave CDU politics), the CDU will have an identity crisis. Merkel's "left-leaning" course alienated many right-wing voters, the SPD has become indistinguishable in many aspects thus competing for the centrist voters. The CDU would be expected to snap back to a slightly more conservative, more right wing position but Merkel practically eliminated all possible leadership candidates. Von der Leyen will not be the next Merkel, but all other public figures are either gone already or on their way out.

We're almost guaranteed to end up with another coalition government. It will likely be led by Merkel's CDU. I think we'll also see the AfD reach a two digit number -- I hope for less than that, but less than 5% (which is the minimum for getting any seats) seems unlikely.

[fmap]

> I'm not sure what the RILE score is but that chart is worthless if you want to understand party alignment.

Even if you somehow project every single point of discussion into one dimension, isn't this a weird axis? It seems like there are a lot of issues in the US which no sane party argues about in Germany (e.g., separation of state and religion). If you were to do a factor analysis after presenting the same polls to parties in Germany and the US you will probably end up with an axis which neatly separates everything by country...

> I think we'll also see the AfD reach a two digit number -- I hope for less than that, but less than 5% (which is the minimum for getting any seats) seems unlikely.

I hope that you're wrong and at least according to current polls >10% doesn't seem like a forgone conclusion (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundestagswahl_2017/Umfragen_u...).

[pluma]

> separation of state and religion

FWIW as I used to be misinformed about this: Germany does not have a meaningful separation of state and religion. We have no state religion so it's not a "Christian nation" strictly speaking but there are a lot of things preventing us from being a secular one:

* the constitution establishes that the German people have a duty to "God"

* recognised (publicly incorporated) churches have special privileges, like enacting taxes on their members, which are collected "for free" by the state

* employees of the Catholic or Protestant churches are subject to church law, which often overrides ordinary labor protections

* Merkel has repeatedly stated that Europe and Germany are defined by Christian values and that her stance on certain topics (e.g. homosexuality) is guided by her Christianity

* we have a blasphemy law that criminalises insults against religious beliefs or deities (rather than individuals or religious groups)

(there are more examples but I think this is sufficient to prove a point)

> I hope that you're wrong and at least according to current polls >10% doesn't seem like a forgone conclusion

So do I, I'm just going by their trajectory in state elections. I don't want them to get a single seat but I know they are still the go-to protest vote and there are a lot of upset voters.

[chki]

Thanks for the great Analysis which addresses many problems with the article. I want to emphasize the point you made about the CDU/CSU and FDP being more conservative than the Democrats: A strongly left wing Democrat like Berny Sanders would in my opinion probably be somewhere between the CDU and the SPD, a "normal Democrat" would be somewhere between the CDU and the AFD.