[geofft]

> Uber is a real opportunity. Kalanick is unpopular, but he got Uber to where it is.

And Lyft got to where it is with no Kalanick. (... actually, does anyone know off the top of their heads, besides Lyft and maybe Uber employees, who founded Lyft and whether they're still in charge?)

The myth of the founder-hero who is the only person who can run a company usually has little evidence in its favor, but in this case it has explicit evidence against it. Lyft as a service is basically indistinguishable from Uber in markets where it serves both, possibly slightly better. And if Lyft acquires Uber, the two services get to stop competing on price, buying them plenty of time to figure out the self-driving tech (which, I agree, they need), and the combined company will succeed easily, no Kalanick needed.

(Also, I think "unpopular" is a pretty low-information description of why Kalanick got forced out. It could mean anything from "people on the internet don't like them" to "regulators don't like them" to "investors don't like them" to "employees don't like them," each of which have very different impacts on the company, and comparing an unpopular founder in one sense to another company's unpopular founder in another sense may not be meaningful.)

[stephenhck]

I think you're overlooking a huge difference in your argument against "the myth of the founder-hero": Lyft benefited tremendously from Uber pushing into new markets / cities first. Uber and tk had a huge impact on making ride share legal, and Lyft never had to deal with that (or not nearly as much).

Also, how would Lyft ever buy Uber? Even if Uber and Lyft get 50/50 market share, which I think is impossible, you need to be way larger to buy out another company.

[sah2ed]

In the tech industry, the pioneers are usually the ones with arrows in their backs.

You are absolutely right that the TK/Uber combo going head-on against existing laws is what made ride hailing a reality for millions of consumers, but unless the pioneer has an air tight go-to market strategy to create and maintain dominance of the market, historically, the odds tilt strongly in favor of the second mover, third mover, nth mover (i.e. fast followers) achieving market dominance.

Facebook, the market leader was launched in 2004, MySpace in 2003 and there was Friendster in 2002 founded by Jonathan Abrams.

Zuckerberg learnt how not to run a social network from watching the mistakes of Friendster and MySpace before him.

[malandrew]

This. Kalanick is as much Lyft's founder as Uber's founder. Without Kalanick, Lyft would be a tiny fraction of its current size and available only in a few markets.

[shaklee3]

Companies with a founder leading are more likely to be successful: https://a16z.com/2010/04/28/why-we-prefer-founding-ceos/

[ec109685]

There is some survivorship bias here, right? Only successful companies would allow their founder to continue leading them.

[geofft]

More relevantly, this is about founders who voluntarily step down thinking it's a recommended best practice to let an experienced CEO take the job once the company is big. That might have been common wisdom in 2010, but it doesn't seem to be quite as common wisdom today, and in any case, that's a very different scenario from a founder who's been forced out or even one who's almost been forced out. The reason to look for a non-founder CEO in this case is some specific belief that this particular person has become bad for the company, not a generic belief that all founders are bad as CEOs.

[rpmcmurphy]

The change that nobody is factoring into predictions is what happens if local governments pass minimum pay requirements for drivers. This will end the race to the bottom, which will be a good thing for all parties (except passengers who are freeriding off investor subsidies and crap driver pay).

[aianus]

As a driver, the pay is well over (+30%) minimum wage after all expenses including depreciation.

Don't know where this 'crap pay' trope is coming from, might be different in different markets.

[rpmcmurphy]

30% over minimum wage. Wow, sign me up! That would be $18 an hour in San Francisco, so working a 40 hour week, that would be about $2900 pre tax. Let's shave off 25% for taxes, that's $2160 per month, not enough to make rent (and that's assuming you allocate 100% of your income to rent). Explain again how this is not crap pay.

[aianus]

It's good pay for an easy job that requires no skills and offers perfect flexibility. The alternatives are a lot shittier.

[Grue3]

Lyft wouldn't get anywhere if Uber didn't exist. They don't have the guts to flaunt the laws like Uber did. It's always easier to follow.