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by munificent 3224 days ago
Even that doesn't fully specify the problem since we don't know the prior probability of a random car being blue. Reword the question to be "rainbow", "chartreuse" or some other less common car color and the probability should go down.
1 comments

> we don't know the prior probability of a random car being blue

That's true, but irrelevant. The problem stipulated that this car is in fact blue, so the prior in its being blue is 1.

The person being asked what the probability is doesn't know the fact, so the prior probability from their perspective isn't 1.