[pavel_lishin]

I don't buy it, at least not as stated in the book. The axioms in the book are flawed, and there are some unspoken axioms that aren't explicitly laid out.

1. Destroying a civilization isn't risk free. If you destroy a nearby star system that harbors life, you better be sure that your weapon can't be traced back to you, by either any observers, or by the survivors. (See Forge of God & The Anvil of the Stars[1] for a study of the latter.)

2. If you do subscribe to the Dark Forest game theory, and do have what you believe is an untraceable weapon of some kind, there's no reason not to sterilize every star system around you. Why would you wait until you've detected life? Send out self-replicating Saberhagen Berserker[2] probes and sterilize the galaxy. (Be sure you've got a good Friend-or-Foe system in place.)

[1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/464609.Anvil_of_Stars [2] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/582675.Berserker

[ufmace]

Trying to spin up axioms and theories about the game theory of whether or not to destroy alien species seems hopeless to me. There's so many parts of it that hinge on what is or isn't possible to know and do in the first place. It could easily swing either way based on countless factors we know nothing about.

I'm far from saying for sure that something like that is definitely true, or even more likely than not. But it seems reasonably cautious to me to not arbitrarily broadcast out to the universe our location and rough technology level. We have no idea what might be out there or what its capabilities and thought patterns might be. Or rather, it seems hopelessly naive to me to just go ahead with such broadcasts, confident in our theories that nothing could possibly go wrong.

[1001101]

It's a bit anthropocentric to ascribe human utility calculus to alien behavior motivation.

[ufmace]

Indeed, even if our "game theories" are perfectly reasoned by our logic and the technology available to us, there's no telling what kind of logic and thought patterns an alien civilization might use, and what different types of technology they might have.

[pavel_lishin]

That's a baby-eating attitude.

[new299]

Regarding point the second point. I assume there's a cost associated with using the weapon, even if it's untraceable.

Regarding the Berserkers, it sounds a bit like a grey-goo scenario with self-replicating machines that wipe out all life. My personal feeling is that these scenarios are unlikely. If it were possible, it would have happened already... but it would be interesting to hear more systematic discussion of this point.

With my brief googling, I've found it pretty difficult to find anything on real "cosmic sociology". The research work I've found has mostly focused on human colonization of other worlds. I feel like it would make fun reading if there's anything out there.

[pavel_lishin]

> Regarding the Berserkers, it sounds a bit like a grey-goo scenario with self-replicating machines that wipe out all life

That's pretty much the idea, yeah.