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by pcmaffey 3239 days ago
Any relevant prediction model should account for the probability of black swans existence, even if it may have no idea what a black swan might look like.
1 comments

This runs against the challenge that (almost?) all statistical methods train by fitting a model to some sort of data. If you have zero examples of a black swan in the data you can agree in principle they might exist but you'd expect a statistical model to get them wrong.